Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1609

August 26, 2021Allamakee County, Winneshiek County, Iowa; Fillmore County, Houston County, Winona County, Minnesota; 7 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 26, 2021, 1:12 PM CDT for Allamakee County, Winneshiek County, Iowa; Fillmore County, Houston County, Winona County, Minnesota; 7 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 26, 2021, 1:12 PM CDT (18:12 UTC)
Expired
Aug 26, 2021, 2:45 PM CDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Allamakee County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Fillmore County, MN, Houston County, MN, Winona County, MN, Crawford County, WI, Jackson County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Richland County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 226 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 458 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 14 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
458 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-249 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
817 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

761 
ACUS11 KWNS 261813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261812 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-261945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Areas affected...Extreme southeast MN/northeast IA...Southwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261812Z - 261945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the damaging wind threat is possible this
afternoon ahead of a convective line. Watch issuance is currently
considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 18Z, a line of thunderstorms is gradually
intensifying across northeast IA into southeast MN, along a remnant
outflow from the decaying MCS across central IA. While substantial
cloud cover is noted downstream into southwest WI, some modest
heating/destabilization has occurred, especially near and south of a
surface boundary draped from southern WI into southwest MN. 

Continued modest destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse
rates may allow for an increasing damaging wind potential with this
line as it moves northeastward. Relatively modest deep-layer
flow/shear (as noted in KARX VWP) should keep organization
relatively limited, so watch issuance is currently considered
unlikely.

..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   43859258 44309147 44349064 43999015 43658999 43199019
            43059063 42979113 42959185 43199211 43419235 43859258

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 26, 7:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audubon, Boone, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll and 20 more83 min
Aug 26, 9:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Benton, Boone, Clarke and 25 more95 min
Aug 26, 5:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Crawford, Harrison, Ida and 9 more116 min
Aug 26, 8:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Lac qui Parle84 min
Aug 26, 9:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon and 11 more4 hr
Aug 26, 10:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Pipestone, Redwood and 1 more92 min
Aug 26, 1:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarver, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Le Sueur, Ramsey and 3 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.