Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1611
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 26, 2021, 1:53 PM CDT for 9 counties in Minnesota; Pierce County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 26, 2021, 1:53 PM CDT (18:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 26, 2021, 3:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Carver County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Washington County, MN, Pierce County, WI
The radar
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 27 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1566 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 65 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 146 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
546
ACUS11 KWNS 261854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261853
MNZ000-WIZ000-262030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021
Areas affected...Southeast MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261853Z - 262030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible with the
small thunderstorm cluster moving into southeast Minnesota. New
watch issuance is unlikely in the short term.
DISCUSSION...While the earlier well-organized MCS across MN has
mostly decayed, convection remains relatively vigorous
west/southwest of the Twin Cities area in southeast MN. The surface
reflection of this system is not as strong as noted earlier, though
rather substantial pressure rises are still being noted in the
immediate wake of the line. Limited buoyancy on the 18Z MPX suggests
that substantial reintensification of this cluster is unlikely, but
the relative dryness noted below 900mb may allow for some stronger
gusts to mix to the surface, despite the notable low-level
stability. Since the threat is expected to remain relatively limited
in areal coverage and magnitude, short-term watch issuance is
unlikely.
..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45089400 45129336 45109282 44909249 44609237 44269243
44289337 44299376 44349403 44599410 45089400SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 8:36 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Lac qui Parle | 84 min |
| Aug 26, 9:05 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Big Stone, Chippewa, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon and 11 more | 4 hr |
| Aug 26, 10:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Pipestone, Redwood and 1 more | 92 min |
| Aug 26, 1:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fillmore, Houston, Winona | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.