Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1606

August 26, 2021Big Stone County, Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota; 16 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 26, 2021, 8:36 AM CDT for Big Stone County, Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota; 16 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 26, 2021, 8:36 AM CDT (13:36 UTC)
Expired
Aug 26, 2021, 10:00 AM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Big Stone County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Beadle County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Miner County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Spink County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2021-08-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2021-08-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 365 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1092 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
365 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
490 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

935 
ACUS11 KWNS 261337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261336 
MNZ000-SDZ000-261500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1606
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Areas affected...Eastern SD into extreme southwest MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261336Z - 261500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong-to-severe wind gusts will remain possible
this morning as a thunderstorm cluster moves southeastward. Watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Sporadic strong to occasionally severe wind gusts have
been noted over the last 1-2 hours in association with a
thunderstorm cluster moving southeastward across eastern SD. This
convection is elevated and will likely remain so through the
morning, given rather substantial downstream MLCINH. However,
increasing low-level moisture transport may allow the cluster to
become rooted closer to the surface with time and allow it to tap
into larger MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) as it tracks
southeastward. 

Effective shear in excess of 40 kt will continue to support some
organization with this cluster, with a short-term severe wind threat
likely spreading into a larger portion of eastern SD and far
southwest MN. The longer-term evolution of this cluster remains
uncertain, due to potential stabilizing effects from a downstream
thunderstorm cluster across Iowa, but watch issuance is possible to
cover the threat through the late morning hours.

..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44569926 45089852 45599771 45709737 45609644 44969612
            44669623 44349667 44079731 43869770 43789825 43829894
            43889917 44079938 44569926

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 26, 9:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon and 11 more4 hr
Aug 26, 10:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Pipestone, Redwood and 1 more92 min
Aug 26, 1:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFillmore, Houston, Winona93 min
Aug 26, 1:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarver, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Le Sueur, Ramsey and 3 more97 min
Aug 26, 2:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Edmunds, Faulk and 6 more2 hr
Aug 26, 3:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBon Homme, Charles Mix, Clay, Hutchinson, Turner, Yankton3 hr
Aug 26, 5:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Lincoln, Turner, Union, Yankton116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.