Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1592

August 24, 202110 counties in Iowa; Houston County, Minnesota; 6 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 24, 2021, 12:44 PM CDT for 10 counties in Iowa; Houston County, Minnesota; 6 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 24, 2021, 12:44 PM CDT (17:44 UTC)
Expired
Aug 24, 2021, 2:15 PM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Allamakee County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Butler County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Howard County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Houston County, MN, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Richland County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Vernon County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1809 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1809 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-127 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1284 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

729 
ACUS11 KWNS 241744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241744 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-241915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Areas affected...northeast Iowa...extreme southeast Minnesota and
southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241744Z - 241915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind may undergo an increase across
northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin this
afternoon. Overall scenario is not particularly high confidence, but
trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...As of early afternoon a line of storms has recently 
undergone some intensification along the southern MN / northern IA
border. These storms are developing on the cool side of an east-west
oriented convective outflow boundary. South of this boundary the
atmosphere is destabilizing with MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg
supported by strong diabatic heating of the moist surface layer.
Theta-e advection from the unstable warm sector may contribute to
further intensification of storms north of the boundary. It also
appears that an MCV or meso-gamma-scale circulation is evident along
the northern end of the line which might help to sustain an
organized linear MCS next few hours despite tendency for slight
warming aloft.

..Dial/Kerr.. 08/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43539274 43769148 43728986 43178960 42698997 42549171
            42669328 43539274

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 24, 6:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Clayton, Dubuque, Fayette and 6 more90 min
Aug 24, 1:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan and 36 more5 hr
Aug 24, 5:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cedar, Clinton, Iowa, Jackson, Jasper and 7 more2 hr
Aug 24, 1:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Benton, Carver, Chippewa, Dakota, Douglas and 26 more95 min
Aug 24, 2:17 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnoka, Benton, Big Stone, Brown, Carver, Chippewa and 34 more7 hr
Aug 24, 3:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Benton, Big Stone, Brown, Carver, Chippewa and 35 more2 hr
Aug 24, 5:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Kandiyohi, McLeod and 8 more90 min
Aug 24, 7:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Chisago, Dakota, Dodge, Fillmore, Freeborn and 13 more95 min
Aug 24, 9:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Calumet, Menominee, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano and 3 more62 min
Aug 24, 3:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreen, Rock, Walworth66 min
Aug 24, 3:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGreen, Lafayette, Rock, Walworth5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.