Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1594

August 24, 20215 counties in Illinois; Green County, Rock County, Walworth County, Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 24, 2021, 3:09 PM CDT for 5 counties in Illinois; Green County, Rock County, Walworth County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 24, 2021, 3:09 PM CDT (20:09 UTC)
Expired
Aug 24, 2021, 4:15 PM CDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Boone County, IL, McHenry County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Green County, WI, Rock County, WI, Walworth County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1809 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1809 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-127 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1284 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

351 
ACUS11 KWNS 242009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242009 
ILZ000-WIZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin through northeast Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242009Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Organized MCS with a threat for damaging wind may continue
beyond WW 461 into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.
Trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch
by 21-22Z.

DISCUSSION...An organized MCS with embedded bowing segments and an
occasional rear inflow notch continues through northeast IA at
around 35 kt. The storms are developing along and north of an
outflow boundary that is moving slowly south and continues to
decelerate. The warm sector is very moist and unstable with 3500
J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will continue to ingest higher theta-e air that
is advecting northward above the shallow near-surface stable layer.
Farther downstream, a few thunderstorms are developing along the
boundary across southeast WI. These may serve to reinforce the
boundary and increase potential for storm interactions as the MCS
continues east.

..Dial/Kerr.. 08/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42838986 43008879 42788794 42028794 41948947 42318974
            42838986

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 24, 6:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJo Daviess90 min
Aug 24, 1:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCarroll, Jo Daviess, Rock Island, Stephenson, Whiteside5 hr
Aug 24, 3:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Lake and 4 more5 hr
Aug 24, 5:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Jo Daviess, Kane and 7 more2 hr
Aug 24, 2:17 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCPierce, Polk, Saint Croix7 hr
Aug 24, 3:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPierce, Polk, Saint Croix2 hr
Aug 24, 7:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Barron, Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn and 15 more95 min
Aug 24, 9:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Calumet, Menominee, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano and 3 more62 min
Aug 24, 12:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Grant, Iowa, Richland, Sauk, Vernon91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.