Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1591

August 24, 20219 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 24, 2021, 9:13 AM CDT for 9 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 24, 2021, 9:13 AM CDT (14:13 UTC)
Expired
Aug 24, 2021, 10:15 AM CDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 31 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-08-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 58 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2021-08-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -33 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
58 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-344 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1387 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

819 
ACUS11 KWNS 241413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241413 
WIZ000-241515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Areas affected...eastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241413Z - 241515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for a few strong to severe gusts will persist
across a part of eastern Wisconsin until about 16Z. Overall
magnitude and spacial extent of the threat does not appear to
warrant a WW at this time.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms along the eastern periphery of a large
MCS is moving east at 35 kt through central WI. These storms are
tracking along the instability gradient associated with a reservoir
of moderate instability (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) which extends from
southern WI through central and southern Lake Michigan. Overall
tendency has been for storms to undergo some weakening. However, as
the downstream boundary layer warms, some re-intensification is
possible before activity moves offshore.

..Dial/Kerr.. 08/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON   44078928 44678900 45268861 45258785 44648752 43878776
            43798856 44078928

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 24, 2:17 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCPierce, Polk, Saint Croix7 hr
Aug 24, 3:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPierce, Polk, Saint Croix2 hr
Aug 24, 6:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Buffalo, Clark, Columbia, Crawford, Dane and 26 more90 min
Aug 24, 7:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Barron, Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn and 15 more95 min
Aug 24, 12:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Grant, Iowa, Richland, Sauk, Vernon91 min
Aug 24, 1:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGrant5 hr
Aug 24, 3:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreen, Rock, Walworth66 min
Aug 24, 3:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGreen, Lafayette, Rock, Walworth5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.