Mesoscale Discussion 1588

Issued

Aug 24, 2021, 5:00 AM CDT (10:00 UTC)

Expired

Aug 24, 2021, 6:30 AM CDT

In force

90 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 460

Counties Anoka County, MN, Carver County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Renville County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Wright County, MN

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

601 
ACUS11 KWNS 241001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241000 
MNZ000-241130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...

Valid 241000Z - 241130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest threat for severe/damaging wind gusts should
focus across part of central/eastern Minnesota over the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent velocity imagery from KMPX shows evidence that a
rear-inflow jet has developed with a well-organized MCS located over
central MN early this morning. A measured severe wind gust to 50 kt
was recorded at 0935Z at KGHW, with related tree damage reported
nearby. Current expectations are for this line to move
east-southeastward across the remainder of central/eastern MN over
the next couple of hours along an instability gradient associated
with a surface front. A veering/strengthening wind profile with
height though mid levels has been observed by recent VWPs from KMPX,
and 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear should prove favorable for
continued intensity and organization of the MCS in the short term.
Given the large buoyancy available along/south of the front
(2500-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE), scattered severe/damaging wind gusts of
60-70 mph will likely remain the primary threat with the MCS as it
approaches the Twin Cities metro in the next hour or two.

..Gleason.. 08/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...

LAT...LON   44979548 45289498 45679487 45519381 45209301 44829283
            44449320 44359408 44719557 44979548

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.