Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1586
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 24, 2021, 1:10 AM CDT for 32 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 24, 2021, 1:10 AM CDT (06:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 24, 2021, 2:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 32 counties
Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN
The radar
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 501 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -147 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1780 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
662
ACUS11 KWNS 240610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240610
MNZ000-240745-
Mesoscale Discussion 1586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 240610Z - 240745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for scattered damaging winds and isolated
severe hail may continue with storms moving eastward this morning.
Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is ongoing from southeastern SD into
northeastern SD early this morning. The northern segment of this
line is moving quickly eastward around 40-45 kt, and should reach
the eastern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 within the next
60-90 minutes. A wind gust to 91 mph was recorded at 0533Z at a
mesonet site in association with the MCS along the ND/SD border.
While winds that high may not be occurring over a large area, there
appears to be potential for at least scattered severe/damaging winds
around 60-70 mph to continue through the early morning hours into
parts of central/southern MN. A surface front is located across this
region, with dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s to its
south. This front may try to lift northward some over the next
couple of hours, but the faster northern segment of the MCS may move
along or just north of this boundary given its quick eastward
motion. Regardless, continued lift from a southerly low-level jet
and strong deep-layer shear will likely continue to support the
intensity and longevity of this line into central/southern MN where
an unstable airmass resides. If current convective trends continue,
then a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...
LAT...LON 46589663 46529472 46099302 45669290 44599296 44229325
44299443 44419543 44619639 45179602 46029620 46589663SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2:17 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Brown, Carver, Chippewa and 34 more | 7 hr |
| Aug 24, 3:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Brown, Carver, Chippewa and 35 more | 2 hr |
| Aug 24, 5:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Kandiyohi, McLeod and 8 more | 90 min |
| Aug 24, 6:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston, Mower and 5 more | 90 min |
| Aug 24, 7:10 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blue Earth, Chisago, Dakota, Dodge, Fillmore, Freeborn and 13 more | 95 min |
| Aug 24, 12:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Houston | 91 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.