Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1561
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 19, 2021, 3:29 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Texas County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2021, 3:29 PM CDT (20:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 19, 2021, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Clark County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Texas County, OK
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 692 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -35 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 734 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -25 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
289
ACUS11 KWNS 192029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192029
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021
Areas affected...Southwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192029Z - 192230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional severe environment exists over southwest
Kansas and parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle. However, storm
development is uncertain due to weak forcing for ascent and residual
capping. This uncertainty precludes the need for a watch at this
time.
DISCUSSION...Recent RAP mesoanalysis fields show MLCAPE has
increased to 2000-2500 J/kg over the past couple of hours over
southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles thanks to higher quality
boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s).
While this region lies on the periphery of stronger flow aloft,
effective bulk shear values between 20-30 knots are marginally
sufficient for organized storms. However, forcing for ascent across
southwest KS is modest and mainly focused along a diffuse dryline
with stronger synoptic lift displaced further to the north.
Furthermore, nearby ongoing convection in eastern CO is struggling
within this environment due to a combination of weak ascent,
residual capping, and somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates. These
factors limit confidence in the development of robust convection,
but if a storm can become sustained it may pose a wind/hail risk
this afternoon and perhaps a tornado risk this evening as the
low-level jet strengthens and SRH increases. Due to the very
conditional nature of this risk, and potentially limited storm
coverage, a watch is not expected at this time.
..Moore/Dial.. 08/19/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 37070208 37640209 38110195 38350143 38260034 37939973
37009956 36740018 36700146 37070208SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 1:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace | 2 hr |
| Aug 19, 2:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace | 6 hr |
| Aug 19, 6:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas | 28 min |
| Aug 19, 6:25 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas | 6 hr |
| Aug 19, 5:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon and 4 more | 59 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.