Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1562

August 19, 202110 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 19, 2021, 5:46 PM CDT for 10 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 19, 2021, 5:46 PM CDT (22:46 UTC)
Expired
Aug 19, 2021, 6:45 PM CDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Clay County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 241 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-08-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1123 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-08-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 33 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1123 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-57 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
988 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

305 
ACUS11 KWNS 192247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192246 
OKZ000-TXZ000-192345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192246Z - 192345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind threat may continue for a few more
hours, watch issuance not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a small cluster of storms entering
portions of southwest Oklahoma, with a history of producing damaging
wind gusts, including a 71 kt gust at the Hollis, OK, mesonet site
at 2210 UTC. These storms have formed in environment characterized
by MLCAPE near 3500-4000 J/kg and weak deep-layer shear. Relatively
steep low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and modest low-level shear
(25 kt 0-3 km AGL per KFDR VAD) is likely enough to support a
continued threat of damaging wind gusts for a few more hours, at
least until day time heating subsides. Given the current expectation
for an isolated wind threat, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Karstens/Thompson.. 08/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33869954 34430018 35479969 35499816 33779819 33869954

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 19, 3:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Texas2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.