Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1134

June 30, 202122 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 30, 2021, 3:29 PM EDT for 22 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 30, 2021, 3:29 PM EDT (19:29 UTC)
Expired
Jun 30, 2021, 5:30 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 328
All 22 counties

Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Greene County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Union County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 807 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 71 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
807 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-49 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1240 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

357 
ACUS11 KWNS 301929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301929 
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-302130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Areas affected...Central to western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328...

Valid 301929Z - 302130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind continues for southwest to
central Pennsylvania as thunderstorm coverage gradually increases.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a gradual increase in
thunderstorm coverage across far eastern OH and central PA along a
diffuse surface trough. Most storms in this region have shown a
tendency for outrunning outflows and/or becoming driven by cold-pool
propagation, but a few have shown sufficient
organization/intensification for damaging winds. Temperatures
warming into the low 90s are sustaining 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over
the region as well as 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates. These
thermodynamics combined with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear
will maintain a conditionally favorable damaging wind environment
that may be realized by any stronger downburst or clusters that can
develop organized outflows oriented orthogonal to the westerly mean
flow. The damaging wind threat will likely be highest from southwest
to central PA for the next 1-2 hours where more robust convection is
noted in IR imagery and echo top data. The severe risk should
gradually shift to the east/northeast of ongoing convection through
late afternoon.

..Moore.. 06/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40428044 40697981 41187876 41537783 41707720 41367660
            40907656 40557694 40257762 39827832 39647922 39647992
            39648039 39768058 40078050 40428044

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 30, 11:30 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Blair, Butler, Cambria and 23 more2 hr
Jun 30, 11:47 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 9 more7 hr
Jun 30, 12:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre, Clearfield and 20 more7 hr
Jun 30, 2:16 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarbon, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, Pike, Wayne and 1 more119 min
Jun 30, 3:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBerks, Bradford, Carbon, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Luzerne and 6 more7 hr
Jun 30, 4:41 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bedford, Berks, Blair, Columbia, Cumberland and 17 more2 hr
Jun 30, 4:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLackawanna, Susquehanna, Wayne87 min
Jun 30, 4:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon and 3 more3 hr
Jun 30, 6:58 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Berks, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Northampton and 1 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.