Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
617 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

After the brief lull in convection yesterday into this morning,
strong to severe storms expected this evening and continue into
Friday. Moist and unstable air mass remains in place, with
temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Dewpoints are in the low
to mid 60s, with near 70 dewpoints lurking not very far away.

For tonight, shortwave moves into West Texas and enhances the mid
level flow. CAMS all show convection developing across the Trans
Pecos and then between Midland and Lubbock with activity moving
east. Trans Pecos activity may survive into Crockett County and
perhaps into irion, Schleicher, and Sutton before gradually
weakening later in the evening. Convection farther north will move
into the western Big Country, perhaps developing into a MCS and
moving across the remainder of the Big Country by midnight. Wind
and hail the main threats (perhaps high end hail and wind), but
decent helicity in that area around near Sweetwater early this
evening will mean a tornado threat as well.

Convection eventually dissipates overnight, leaving an outflow
boundary draped across the area. Additional outflow and a weak
cold front across Oklahoma overnight will push south as well on
Friday. By Friday afternoon, air mass remains unstable and with
surface boundaries across the area. Weak ridging aloft behind the
shortwave tonight will make for weak mid level flow, but HRRR and
NAMNEST still are aggressive in producing strong convection by
mid/late afternoon somewhere near Abilene/San Angelo/Brownwood and
dropping it southeast across the remainder of the area. Given CAPE
values pushing 4000+ and boundaries to provide some focus, going
to go with the CAMS models and bump POPs for Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

A very active pattern will continue for this weekend as ongoing
strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday night will at least linger
into Saturday morning.  Northwest flow aloft combined with a cold
front and any outflow boundaries will likely result in shower and
thunderstorm redevelopment during the day Saturday. A weak 500mb
ridge will try to build in Saturday night, allowing for a brief
reprieve.  But as a new trough digs in over the Desert Southwest,
the upper levels will transition back to a westerly to southwesterly
flow pattern.  This, along with moist surface flow returning from
the southeast will reintroduce high chances for rain and
thunderstorms for late Sunday through Monday.  In addition to the
usual damaging wind and hail threat, several inches of rain will be
possible with this activity.  The 12Z run of the GFS is currently
pegging 4-6 inches of cumulative rainfall by early next week,
including whatever occurs on Friday. Without sufficient drainage
between rounds of convection, this could lead to flooding concerns.
For the middle of next week, a trough starts to dig southward out of
Canada, pitting the trough axis over the central and southern
Plains.  This should further enhance the dynamics, allowing for even
more rounds of rain and thunderstorms for Tuesday through Thursday.
Otherwise, high temperatures this weekend through the middle of next
week look to be a few degrees cooler than normal, while nights will
be very mild and humid.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Scattered thunderstorms across the Permian Basin will move east
and may impact the KABI terminal this evening, mainly 02-05Z.
Also, going with a VCTS at the KSJT site this evening but
confidence is low. Otherwise going VFR for the next several hours,
then MVFR ceilings will return Friday morning to the terminals,
mainly between 12-18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 67  83  63  79 /  60  60  40  30
San Angelo 	 69  88  64  85 /  30  60  40  20
Junction 	 71  88  66  86 /  10  50  40  30
Brownwood 	 69  84  65  80 /  30  60  50  30
Sweetwater 	 66  81  63  79 /  60  60  40  20
Ozona      	 71  88  66  86 /  30  50  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
219 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-281930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
219 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening and early
tonight, mainly between 6 PM and 11 PM across the area northwest
of a Baird to San Angelo to Ozona line. The main hazards will be
very large hail larger than baseballs, damaging winds in excess of
70 mph, and frequent lightning. The area north of a Sweetwater to
Abilene line will also have an isolated tornado risk as well this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into
Friday night across all of West Central Texas. The main hazards
will be large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. In
addition, heavy rain will be possible, and this may lead to
localized flooding.

An unsettled pattern is expected early next week. This could
bring could bring additional chances for thunderstorms, and a
possibility for strong to severe storms along with heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed weather to the NWS while following all
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
825 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             6 WNW STERLING CITY     31.88N 101.08W
05/27/2021  E1.50 INCH       STERLING           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
832 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

TXZ066-072-073-280230-
Runnels TX-Tom Green TX-Concho TX-
832 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TOM GREEN...
SOUTHWESTERN RUNNELS AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

At 832 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harriet, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paint Rock, Miles, Lowake, Orient, Harriet, Rowena, The Intersection
Of Us-83 And Ranch Road 1929 and Us-83 Near The Concho-
Runnels County Line.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3150 10047 3167 10048 3172 9989 3149 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 257DEG 26KT 3157 10040

sn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
838 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             STERLING CITY           31.84N 100.99W
05/27/2021  E1.00 INCH       STERLING           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

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