Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
232 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...Severe thunderstorms expected late this afternoon and evening...

Early this afternoon, a weak cold front was situated from Sterling
county, southeast through central Coke county, and then east across
northern Brown county. The front is sagging slowly south but will
likely stall over the Concho Valley and Heartland counties this
afternoon. As of 2 PM, several outflow boundaries are also present
south of Interstate 20, with the most prominent boundary working
south across northern Tom Green, Concho, McCullough and San Saba
counties. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the front and outflow boundaries from late afternoon through the
early evening hours. The airmass along and south of the front is
very unstable, with MLCAPE's around 3500 J/Kg and mid level lapse
rates 8-8.5 C/km. Given negligible convective inhibition, should
see storms develop after 4 PM as convective temperature is
breached and a disturbance aloft approaches from the west. Deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with the
potential for very large hail in excess of 2.0 inches in diameter.
The hail threat should gradually wane later this evening, with
damaging winds becoming more of a concern as storms become outflow
dominant, and track southeastward towards the Texas Hill country
overnight.

While the greatest threat is large hail and damaging winds, cannot
rule out a couple of tornadoes, give the numerous boundaries present,
along with relatively low LCL heights and very strong instability.
Heavy rainfall will also be possible with any of the storms that
develop, with the potential for localized flooding.

Saturday will be cooler, with some lingering showers over eastern
sections during the morning hours. Lows tonight will be in the 60s,
with highs Saturday ranging from the upper 70s north, to the lower
80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

By Saturday night, a weak 500mb ridge will try to build into
west Texas, which should allow for a brief reprieve from the rain.
However, a new trough will dig in over the Desert Southwest on
Sunday, causing the upper levels to transition back to a westerly
to southwesterly flow pattern. This, along with moist
southeasterly surface flow will reintroduce high chances for rain
and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday. In addition to the
usual damaging wind and hail threat, several inches of rain could be
possible with this activity. Without sufficient drainage between
multiple rounds of convection, this could lead to flooding
concerns. For the middle of next week, a trough starts to dig
southward out of Canada, pitting the trough axis over the central
Plains. This should further enhance the dynamics, allowing for
even more rounds of rain and thunderstorms for Tuesday through
Thursday. Otherwise, high temperatures this weekend through the
middle of next week look to be a few degrees cooler than normal,
while nights will be very mild and humid.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Main concern this forecast cycle will be strong to severe
convection late this afternoon and evening across the TAF sites.
Thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail will be a concern and
will include TEMPO groups for TS from 22Z to 03Z. Showers and
storms may linger beyond 06Z, but should be diminishing in
coverage. Will include some MVFR ceilings towards daybreak
for most of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 63  77  66  79 /  60  20  10  40
San Angelo 	 64  82  67  83 /  70  20   5  30
Junction 	 64  82  67  83 /  70  20   5  20
Brownwood 	 63  78  66  80 /  60  30   5  20
Sweetwater 	 62  77  66  78 /  70  20  10  50
Ozona      	 64  85  68  82 /  60  10  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
158 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-291900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
158 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight
across all of West Central Texas. The main hazards will be
golf ball to tennis ball size hail, isolated tornadoes. damaging
winds and deadly lightning. In addition, heavy rain will be
possible, and this may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon
and Sunday night across West Central Texas. The main hazards will
be damaging winds, large hail, and dangerous lightning.

An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue through
next Wednesday. This could bring additional chances for
thunderstorms, and a possibility for strong to severe storms along
with heavy rainfall to the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed weather to the NWS while following all
local, state and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1234 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ098-099-114-281815-
Haskell TX-Throckmorton TX-Shackelford TX-
1234 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...
NORTHEASTERN SHACKELFORD AND SOUTHERN THROCKMORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115
PM CDT...

At 1233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Lake Stamford Marina, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodson, Fort Griffin, Lusk, The Intersection Of Us-183 And Us-
283 and The Intersection Of Us-283 And Ranch Road 209.

LAT...LON 3315 9895 3295 9895 3296 9909 3289 9910
      3294 9956 3310 9955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 267DEG 33KT 3302 9945

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             SHERWOOD                31.28N 100.80W
05/28/2021  E1.00 INCH       IRION              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
602 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             SHERWOOD                31.29N 100.80W
05/28/2021  E1.00 INCH       IRION              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             2 N SHERWOOD            31.31N 100.80W
05/28/2021  E1.75 INCH       IRION              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. NO DAMAGE OR
            INJURIES.

&&