Special Marine Warning 172, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
509 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Tropical Storm Claudette is
centered west of New Orleans over southeast Louisiana and will
continue to move northeast through today. The storm remains sheared
from the southwest with all of the deeper convection located on the
east and northeast side within a prominent convective rain band.
As this convective band has been slowly shifting east across
southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, there have been
ground reports of up to nearly 10 inches of rainfall. The latest
MRMS radar precipitation accumulations continue to suggest hourly
rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches within this convective rain band
and three hour totals nearing 8 inches. As this convective band
shifts further east over the next few hours across far southeast
Mississippi and coastal Alabama, expecting rainfall totals to
average between 6 and 10 inches, with isolated totals approaching
12 to 15 inches. This eastward evolution of excessive rainfall
rates/totals is supported by the latest CAM guidance. These
excessive rainfall rates will likely result in life threatening
flash flooding through Saturday morning over coastal Alabama. This
is a potentially particularly dangerous flash flood situation
that is unfolding across far southeast Mississippi and coastal
Alabama this morning. This significant flooding threat will shift
gradually eastward across the western Florida Panhandle later
Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Additional outer rain bands are currently rotating onshore over
our coastal areas to the east of the primary band. These rain bands
have contained periods of heavier rains and wind gusts as high as
50 mph. The airmass is destabilizing across far southeast
Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and far western portions of the
Florida Panhandle early this morning. Latest SPC mesoanalysis
suggest MLCAPE values in these areas and this seems reasonable as
09z surface observations are now in the middle 70s to lower 80s,
with dewpoints now in the middle and upper 70s. This high theta-e
airmass overlaps 0-1km SRH values around 500 m2/s2 from the KMOB
VAD VWD Hodograph. Several rotating low topped supercells were
noted offshore from the Alabama and western Florida Panhandle
coast.

Latest 07z HRRR suggests that stronger instability will continue to
gradually spread further inland through the morning hours. The
tornado threat should continue across far southeast Mississippi over
the next few hours, and coastal Alabama along with the western
Florida Panhandle over the next several hours. The tornado threat
will gradually shift further inland later today with the greatest
threat remaining along and east of I-65 by Saturday afternoon. Be
prepared to take cover if a tornado warning is issued for your
location. Any tornadoes that do develop today will be fast moving.

The severe weather threat will diminish by Saturday evening but the
other local hazards such as high surf, minor coastal flooding,
dangerous rip currents, and heavy rainfall and flooding will
continue into Sunday. /JLH

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Monday night/...A series
of shortwaves aloft will continue to move east across the lower
Mississippi Valley through the short term period, with a surface
cold front moving into the southeastern states Monday and Monday
night. This will keep the threat for rainfall, possibly still
locally heavy, in the forecast into the early part of next week. Any
additional heavy rainfall could continue any flash flooding or river
flood concerns that have arisen from the very heavy rainfall totals
that occurred across the area during Tropical Storm Claudette and we
will continue to monitor for this potential. Low temps both Sunday
night and Monday nights will range from the low to mid 70s inland t
o the mid and upper 70s along the coast. With fairly high rain
chances continuing and with the associated widespread clouds on
Monday, expect that high temps will generally be in the middle 80s
across most of the area. /12

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...A somewhat unsettled
weather pattern will continue during the extended time frame as
well. Best rain chances during the extended will be on Tuesday
(still likely PoPs) as the frontal boundary mentioned in the short
term period likely drifts down to the coast by Tuesday evening. This
sfc front remains quasi-stationary across the area through late
week, but gradually washes out. This will provide a low level
boundary but aloft upper ridging will be building into the region
from the west, but chance PoPs will continue especially when
considering that PWATs will be remaining in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch
range, especially down near the coast. With this the better PoPs
will be over the southern half of the forecast area and a little
lower over inland areas.

Daytime highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to in mid
80s with continued chance PoPs and associated clouds, but with
slightly lower PoPs and a little less in the way of cloud cover
expect that highs on Thursday and Friday to be in the mid to upper
80s. A few areas may reach into the low 90s on Friday. /12

&&

.MARINE...Tropical Storm Claudette formed and moved inland over
southeast Louisiana early this morning and will lift north and
northeast today with a turn toward the east-northeast tonight and
Sunday. On this track, Claudette should move across portions of the
Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend, and over the
western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. High winds and large seas will
continue through the weekend, with tropical storm conditions expected
today and still possible over the Gulf waters tonight. A Tropical
Storm warning remains in effect for all marine zones. Winds and seas
will remain elevated into early part of next week, gradually
subsiding by midweek. Please refer to the latest information from the
National Hurricane Centers regarding Tropical Storm Claudette. /12

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ052-053-055-056-059-
     060-261-262.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ263>266.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ201-203-205.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
226 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

MSZ078-190800-
Stone MS-
226 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EASTERN
STONE COUNTY UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 226 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles east of
Saucier, or 16 miles north of St. Martin, moving north at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Stone
County.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southeastern
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3091 8889 3068 8889 3068 8906 3091 8911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 176DEG 31KT 3067 8895

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
316 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

MSZ079-190845-
George MS-
316 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
GEORGE COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 316 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
of Wade, or 13 miles south of Lucedale, moving north at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southeastern
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3100 8853 3074 8851 3073 8873 3100 8882
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 169DEG 30KT 3074 8862

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
319 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

MSZ078-190845-
Stone MS-
319 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EASTERN
STONE COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 319 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles east of
McHenry, or 16 miles southeast of Wiggins, moving north at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Stone
County.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southeastern
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3091 8889 3068 8889 3068 8904 3091 8909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 175DEG 37KT 3070 8893

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
401 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

MSZ075-076-079-190945-
Perry MS-Greene MS-George MS-
401 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...WESTERN GEORGE...PERRY AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM
CDT...

At 400 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles east of Maxie to 11 miles northwest of Wade,
and moving north at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale, Richton, Leakesville, Beaumont, New Augusta and McLain.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southeastern
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3143 8879 3123 8851 3073 8863 3074 8874
      3082 8883 3091 8889 3093 8902 3098 8908
      3143 8909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0900Z 186DEG 35KT 3099 8903 3075 8871

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TORNADO          4 SSW ALABAMA PORT      30.31N 88.14W
06/19/2021                   MOBILE             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            *** 1 INJ ***
            PER A DIRECT REPORT FROM MOBILE COUNTY 911,
            A TORNADO HIT THE CEDAR POINT FISHING PIER
            LOCATED AT 18250 DAUPHIN ISLAND PARKWAY. A
            2X4 BOARD WAS LAUNCHED THROUGH A WINDOW OF A
            PICKUP TRUCK. THERE WAS ONE POSSIBLE INJURY.

&&

JLH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
455 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

ALZ261-MSZ079-191130-
Mobile Inland AL-George MS-
455 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NORTHERN MOBILE AND EASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM
CDT...

At 455 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles south of Deer Park to 5 miles west of Tanner
Williams, and moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Saraland, Satsuma, Citronelle, Creola, Chunchula, Gulfcrest, Axis,
Mount Vernon, Calvert, I65 And AL 158, Movico and Wilmer.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for southwestern
Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3074 8854 3111 8841 3117 8799 3111 8789
      3112 8795 3111 8793 3110 8789 3109 8797
      3108 8797 3109 8791 3103 8796 3105 8790
      3093 8792 3094 8792 3088 8799 3083 8794
      3079 8799 3080 8841 3074 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0955Z 269DEG 9KT 3114 8835 3073 8846