Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The potential for severe weather will continue through this
afternoon due to very abundant low level moisture. The greatest
threat will be in the western portion of the severe thunderstorm
watch the next several hours due clearing skies creating higher
surface temperatures. Skies will likely clear in the eastern
portions of the watch later allowing the potential for severe
weather to shift east. Large hail will be the primary threat. In
addition, PWAT values well above normal indicate a saturated
airmass that will continue the possibility of flash flooding
through tonight. Models are not consistent with QPF amounts and
locations so have broadened the flash flood watch and extended it
in time until tomorrow morning giving the midnight shift a chance
to reevaluate further.

The upper level trough supporting the convection will slowly move
east tomorrow allowing PoPs to diminish the remainder of the week.
However the trough will deposit a cutoff low over Mexico that will
linger for several days continuing some chance for scattered
showers. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  77  60  81 /  70  20  30  30
Carlsbad                       61  79  61  84 /  40  30  30  50
Dryden                         66  81  65  83 /  50  40  50  40
Fort Stockton                  61  78  62  83 /  50  40  40  50
Guadalupe Pass                 57  76  59  80 /  20  30  30  50
Hobbs                          57  77  58  81 /  40  30  40  40
Marfa                          54  79  53  82 /  30  50  40  60
Midland Intl Airport           60  78  61  81 /  60  20  30  30
Odessa                         60  79  62  82 /  50  20  30  30
Wink                           61  81  62  86 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Borden-
     Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton.

&&

88/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-011915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
202 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 /102 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible once again today into
tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain resulting in
flash flooding are the main concerns. An isolated tornado will also
be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of the Permian Basin until
Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday and
Wednesday, with storm chances persisting through the end of the
week. The strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated beginning this afternoon.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
224 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

TXZ075-312015-
Pecos TX-
224 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

At 224 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles southeast of Saragosa, or 31 miles west of Fort Stockton,
moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton, Fort Stockton-Pecos County Airport and Firestone Test
Track.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 244 and 261.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3098 10286 3071 10281 3066 10344 3068 10346
      3084 10349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 260DEG 31KT 3077 10340

70

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