Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
343 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.Short Term...Today through Tuesday night

Forecast generally on track and it continues to look very unsettled
with locally heavy rain expected. Main driver continues to be a slow
moving, cut off upper low, and associated upper trough currently
centered over NE Oklahoma. System will be very slow to move out
resulting in numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. CAMS
guidance seems to have a good handle on this developing situation
and will follow it closely moving forward.

Heavy rain has been experienced across portions of the CWA over the
past 24 hours with several bands of two inch plus amounts noted.
Parts of SW Arkansas did see in excess of four inches early Sunday
morning with additional heavy rain already occurring at this time in
the same general area. This precipitation has left many parts of the
state saturated and subject to flash flooding issues with any
additional precipitation, which by the way seems to be a very good
bet.

The air mass is moisture laden with PWATS currently between 1.5 and
2 inches. PWATS are expected to remain very high with some guidance
showing these values climbing to as high as 2.25 inches as low level
flow will come in from a wide open gulf. Low level convergence is
also evident and with light steering flow, any cells that do develop
will be very efficient rain makers. While instability is noted,
overall threat of severe weather does not seem very high although a
strong storm or two can not be ruled out.

Models are very bullish with widespread precipitation through
Tuesday of several inches of rain, at least. At least one CAMS model
is actually showing a MCV in its reflectivity field which would lead
to additional flooding concerns.

Based on antecedent soil conditions, the potential for slow moving,
training cells and the amount of moisture in place, have decided to
issue a flash flood watch effective this morning. I would not be
surprised to see a large part of central and southern Arkansas
seeing in excess of three to four inches of rain with locally higher
amounts through Tuesday.

Upper trough finally begins to lift out Tuesday night and into
Wednesday as ridging begins to build into the nations mid section.
&&

.Long term...Wednesday through Sunday

Beginning of the long term forecast wl lkly mark the beginning of a
prevailing summertime pattern for the Natural State. H500 progs
suggest the lingering weak upper cyclonic perturbation that wl be
shifting Ewrd, w/ Wrn US troughing advancing Ewrd and amplifying
antecedent Cntrl US ridging.

As Cntrl US H500 ridging becomes more steady, temperature trends
across the FA wl become more seasonable for June in AR, w/ afternoon
highs approaching the upper 80s and low 90s at most locations. As
such, w/ minimal forcing mechanisms in play, a transition to
diurnally driven PoPs is anticipated, w/ SCT showers/tstorms
becoming more prevalent in the afternoon hours across the region.

Late in the PD, H500 ridging appears to retrograde, positioning a
fetch of weak N/Wrly flow over the Cntrl US, w/ broad diffluence
noted over the Srn Gulf Coast. Synoptic forcing for descent on the
downstream branch of this ridge looks to support a sfc high over the
Nrn Great Plains, which is progged to sag S/wrd through through
Cntrl US sometime late next weekend. 00Z suite of global
deterministic guidance remains more variable on magnitude and
positioning of the sfc high and weak cold frnt, however, some
similarities do exist including the retrograding upper ridge and sfc
anticyclonic flow. 00Z GFS remains more aggressive w/ a stronger sfc
high and cold frnt, while ECMWF guidance is more tame, w/ the frnt
washing out. Given the anticipated summertime pattern, this upcoming
feature remains one of the more interesting fcst features to watch
in the extended term, and may offer a brief relief after the coming
week of sweltering conditions.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  68  82  69 /  80  80  80  70
Camden AR         83  69  86  70 /  80  50  70  30
Harrison AR       78  65  80  67 /  80  70  70  50
Hot Springs AR    79  67  83  69 /  80  70  80  40
Little Rock   AR  80  69  83  71 /  90  70  80  50
Monticello AR     83  72  86  72 /  80  60  70  40
Mount Ida AR      79  67  83  68 /  80  70  80  40
Mountain Home AR  79  67  81  69 /  80  70  80  50
Newport AR        82  70  82  71 /  80  80  80  70
Pine Bluff AR     83  70  84  72 /  80  60  70  50
Russellville AR   79  68  82  69 /  90  70  80  50
Searcy AR         81  67  83  69 /  80  80  80  70
Stuttgart AR      83  71  84  72 /  80  70  70  60
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday
morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-
Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-
Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

Short Term...Goudsward / Long Term...GREEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
358 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
358 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
period with locally heavy rain possible. Several inches of rain
have fallen across a good part of the state over the past day or
so leaving the ground saturated in many areas.

Rainfall amounts could surpass three inches for much of central
and southern Arkansas through tonight leading to flash flooding
concerns. These concerns will be heightened in those areas that
have already experienced heavy rain. Area streams and rivers will
likely see some rises as the water drains off.

While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, widespread severe
weather is not expected and the main concern will continue to be
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional periods of rain, locally heavy, are expected Tuesday
and into Tuesday night. Several more inches of rain could fall on
saturated ground leading to additional flash flooding concerns.

Come Wednesday, a stagnant, summertime pattern is expected to
develop follow a period of heavy and persistent rainfall in the
short term. Daily chances for afternoon showers and a few
thunderstorms will prevail, with an occasional strong storm,
however no organized severe weather is anticipated. Afternoon
temperatures will be on the rising trend, with highs beginning to
approach 90F, along with muggy and sweltering conditions settling
in.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FERNDALE                34.78N  92.56W
06/06/2021                   PULASKI            AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PICTURE POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA OF WATER MOVING ACROSS A
            NEIGHBORHOOD ROAD IN FERNDALE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100657

232

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1124 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONTICELLO              33.62N  91.79W
06/06/2021                   DREW               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF SOME STREET FLOODING IN
            MONTICELLO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100658

232

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
459 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WHELEN SPRINGS          33.84N  93.13W
06/07/2021                   CLARK              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN OVER HWY 53 BETWEEN GURDON AND
            WHELEN SPRINGS AND CAUSED AN ACCIDENT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100659

232

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
504 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ARZ055-056-062>064-067>069-071045-
Bradley AR-Grant AR-Drew AR-Cleveland AR-Calhoun AR-Lincoln AR-
Dallas AR-Jefferson AR-
504 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BRADLEY...CLEVELAND...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN...EASTERN DALLAS...
NORTHWESTERN DREW...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND WESTERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 502 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lamont to near Rison to near Ellisville.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Bluff...                     Warren...
Fordyce...                        Star City...
Rison...                          White Hall...
Altheimer...                      Wilmar...
Grady...                          Kingsland...
Thornton...                       Whitefield...
Plantersville...                  Weeks...
Woodville...                      Tipton...
Herbine...                        Nebo...
Feenyville...                     Ellisville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3437 9177 3406 9164 3364 9183 3359 9265
      3390 9237 3420 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 257DEG 34KT 3413 9234 3395 9226 3373 9240

232