Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.AVIATION...07/00Z TAF CYCLE

Wl cont to see additional rounds of convection affect the FA thru
the PD, assocd with a slow moving upper lvl low just to the NW of
AR. Ongoing activity is expected to diminish later this evening,
with more widespread activity again forming on Mon. Flight conds
wl mainly rmn MVFR/VFR ovr the area, with lower conds in heavier
rain and storms. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday
An upper low pressure area is centered over northeast Oklahoma. With
an upper high over the southeast U.S., the upper low will slowly
move northeast through Tuesday.

Unsettled weather will continue through the short term. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to become likely at times
through Tuesday. Some thunderstorms will produce brief heavy rain at
times. Through Tuesday afternoon expect 1 to 1.5 inches to fall in
many locations. The best chances for the heavier rainfall will be
central and south.

Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s, and mid 60s to lower
70s Monday night. Highs Monday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s,
and in the lower to mid 80s Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Beginning the period, southwesterly flow, aided by a low pressure
system to the north of the CWA paired with a dominant high pressure
continues moisture flow into much of the CWA, at least early in the
period. The low tracks into the Ohio Valley, still creating
unsettled weather for the CWA through at least late next week.

Tuesday night into Wednesday has highest PoPs over the area,
especially NE AR, as the upper level low pulls away from the state.
By late week, the low appears to move far enough away from the area
that impacts appear to be minimal. Models are currently in agreement
that by Friday morning rain exits the most/all of the CWA with a
break in shower activity. This break looks brief, however, given a
building ridge setting up a summer like pattern with PoPs elevated
during the afternoon hours.

During this stretch of active and wet weather, rain chances will be
possible everyday during most of the period. Rain showers and/or
thunderstorms are likely going to be scattered in nature meaning all
the rain is not likely to come all at once and will fall over an
extended period of time. With that said, any areas that see
training/stalled storms could get higher rainfall totals than any
surrounding areas. Therefore, isolated flash flooding cannot be
ruled out.

The first half of the period looks to see temperatures remain
average to slightly above average as highs look to be in the 80s
with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Late in the period, under the
building high pressure, temperature look to surge above average with
highs in the mid to upper 80s for most areas with some areas
possibly reaching into the low 90s. Lows look to remain in the upper
60s and low 70s.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
320 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
320 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the period with the best chances for seeing
thunderstorms during the afternoon through early evening hours.

Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible which may lead to an
isolated flash flood threat. The overall threat for seeing severe
weather will remain low but an isolated strong storm can not be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

Through the early portion of the forecast period, daily chances
for showers and some thunderstorms will prevail under a nearly
stationary upper level storm system. Rainfall accumulations around
the region through the end of next week could approach two to
four inches, with the greatest accumulations likely over the
southern and southwestern portions of the state. Persistent
rainfall could lead to increasing soil saturation/runoff, and
contribute to isolated flash flooding, particularly through Monday
and Tuesday. At this time...the threat of organized severe
weather remains low through the forecast period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
259 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

ARZ040-062045-
Polk AR-
259 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grannis, or 10 miles north of De Queen, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wickes...                         Grannis...
Hatfield...                       Vandervoort...
Shady...                          Hartley...
Cossatot River State Park...      Caney Creek Wilderness...
Mccauley...                       Cove...
Hatton...                         Potter...
Bogg Springs...

LAT...LON 3430 9447 3458 9436 3445 9403 3435 9411
      3435 9425 3427 9426 3427 9425 3419 9425
      3419 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 208DEG 22KT 3419 9439

230

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
559 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

ARZ043-044-062345-
Pulaski AR-Saline AR-
559 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SALINE AND CENTRAL
PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Salem in Saline County, or near Bryant. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    Benton...
West Little Rock...               Bryant...
Southwest Little Rock...          Shannon Hills...
Pinnacle Mountain State Park...   Otter Creek...
Geyer Springs...                  Mabelvale...
Salem in Saline County...         Chenal Valley...
Alexander...                      Bauxite...
Avilla...                         Congo...
Ferndale...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 9252 3468 9268 3488 9253 3470 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 223DEG 2KT 3467 9254

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