Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Little Rock, AR

537 
WGUS64 KLZK 191653
FFALZK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1153 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

ARZ022-055-062-066-201200-
/O.EXA.KLZK.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210521T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pope-Grant-Dallas-Ouachita-
Including the cities of Russellville, Fordyce, Camden, and Sheridan
1153 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of central Arkansas and 
  southwest Arkansas, including the following areas, in central 
  Arkansas, Grant and Pope. In southwest Arkansas, Dallas and 
  Ouachita.

* Through Thursday evening

* Widespread heavy rainfall has fallen over much of the watch area 
  over the past few days. With additional rounds of showers and 
  thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday, the potential for 
  additional flash flooding will continue.

* With the ground already saturated in many areas, it will not take 
  much additional rainfall to produce flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

ARZ023-024-031>033-037>045-052>054-201200-
/O.CON.KLZK.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210521T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Van Buren-Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-White-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-
Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-
Including the cities of Morrilton, Cabot, Danville, Mena, 
Perryville, Murfreesboro, Mount Ida, Norman, Dardanelle, Glenwood, 
Hot Springs, Malvern, Arkadelphia, Bryant, Benton, Little Rock, 
Searcy, Lonoke, Ola, Fairfield Bay, Clinton, Conway, Heber Springs, 
Beebe, North Little Rock, and Waldron
1153 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Arkansas...north central Arkansas...southwest 
  Arkansas and western Arkansas, including the following areas, in 
  central Arkansas, Conway, Faulkner, Garland, Lonoke, Perry, 
  Pulaski, Saline, White and Yell. In north central Arkansas, 
  Cleburne and Van Buren. In southwest Arkansas, Clark, Hot Spring 
  and Pike. In western Arkansas, Montgomery, Polk and Scott.

* Through Thursday evening

* Widespread heavy rainfall has fallen over much of the watch area 
  over the past few days. With additional rounds of showers and 
  thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday, the potential for 
  additional flash flooding will continue.

* With the ground already saturated in many areas, it will not take 
  much additional rainfall to produce flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

44

866 
WGUS64 KLZK 200814
FFALZK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
314 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

ARZ022>024-031>033-037>045-052>055-062-066-210000-
/O.CON.KLZK.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210521T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-White-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-
Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Dallas-Ouachita-
Including the cities of Russellville, Morrilton, Cabot, Danville, 
Mena, Perryville, Murfreesboro, Mount Ida, Norman, Dardanelle, 
Glenwood, Hot Springs, Malvern, Arkadelphia, Bryant, Sheridan, 
Fordyce, Benton, Little Rock, Searcy, Lonoke, Ola, Fairfield Bay, 
Clinton, Conway, Heber Springs, Beebe, North Little Rock, Camden, 
and Waldron
314 AM CDT Thu May 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Arkansas...north central Arkansas...southwest 
  Arkansas and western Arkansas, including the following areas, in 
  central Arkansas, Conway, Faulkner, Garland, Grant, Lonoke, Perry, 
  Pope, Pulaski, Saline, White and Yell. In north central Arkansas, 
  Cleburne and Van Buren. In southwest Arkansas, Clark, Dallas, Hot 
  Spring, Ouachita and Pike. In western Arkansas, Montgomery, Polk 
  and Scott.

* Through this evening

* Widespread heavy rainfall has fallen over much of the watch area 
  over the past few days. With additional rounds of showers and 
  thunderstorms in the forecast through this afternoon....the 
  potential for additional flash flooding will continue...especially 
  in areas where a narrow axis of heavy rainfall sets up.

* With the ground already saturated in many areas, it will not take 
  much additional rainfall to produce flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

62

896 
WGUS64 KLZK 201956
FFALZK

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021

ARZ022>024-031>033-037>045-052>055-062-066-210000-
/O.CON.KLZK.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-210521T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-White-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-
Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Dallas-Ouachita-
Including the cities of Russellville, Morrilton, Cabot, Danville, 
Mena, Perryville, Murfreesboro, Mount Ida, Norman, Dardanelle, 
Glenwood, Hot Springs, Malvern, Arkadelphia, Bryant, Sheridan, 
Fordyce, Benton, Little Rock, Searcy, Lonoke, Ola, Fairfield Bay, 
Clinton, Conway, Heber Springs, Beebe, North Little Rock, Camden, 
and Waldron
256 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Arkansas...north central Arkansas...southwest 
  Arkansas and western Arkansas, including the following areas, in 
  central Arkansas, Conway, Faulkner, Garland, Grant, Lonoke, Perry, 
  Pope, Pulaski, Saline, White and Yell. In north central Arkansas, 
  Cleburne and Van Buren. In southwest Arkansas, Clark, Dallas, Hot 
  Spring, Ouachita and Pike. In western Arkansas, Montgomery, Polk 
  and Scott.

* Until 7 PM CDT this evening

* Widespread heavy rainfall has fallen over much of the watch area 
  over the past few days. With additional rounds of showers and 
  thunderstorms in the forecast through this afternoon....the 
  potential for additional flash flooding will continue...especially 
  in areas where a narrow axis of heavy rainfall sets up.

* With the ground already saturated in many areas, it will not take 
  much additional rainfall to produce flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You 
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should 
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
648 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

.AVIATION...
Southerly flow continues to bring moisture into the state this
morning with scattered showers. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected today and tonight. Heavy rain will be possible at
times. Low clouds, rain, and fog will lead to MVFR and IFR
conditions at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 237 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

Most of the heavy rainfall had ended earlier in the morning hrs
after some small scale boundary features generated a few small areas
of very heavy rainfall of 2 to over 5 inches in some locations over
central AR. Looking at the bigger picture...a complex of SHRA/TSRA
remains south of AR early this morning...with the strongest
activity moving east along the Gulf Coast. On the NRN edge closer
to AR...additional scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA has been noted
across WRN and extreme SERN sections of the state early this
morning.

Not much of a change is noted from Tue morning in the overall
synoptic pattern...with a trough to the west...and ridge to the east
of the state. This puts AR in S/SW flow aloft...with ample moisture
continuing to lift north into the state. Will continue to see upper
disturbances lift north over some portion of the state...with the
next wave or two lifting north through this afternoon and tonight.
This will bring some additional SHRA/TSRA to the CWA through tonight
once again.

The confidence in seeing precip...some potentially heavy at
times...is fairly high. What remains uncertain is the exact
location and timing of where the best coverage and heaviest rain
will fall. This will depend highly on any small scale features like
outflow boundaries...along with where the upper disturbances pass.
Latest data suggests the WRN portions of the CWA remain in the
higher confidence area of seeing more organized convection...but
still think there could be some potential further east like recent
events have shown. Will just need to keep any eye on any smaller
scale features that could alter the overall synoptic scale setup for
where any localized heavy rainfall maxima sets up.

Given the aforementioned confidence issues...do not plan on any
alterations to the current flood watch at this time. As for the SVR
Wx threat...while the threat is low at this time...a few strong to
briefly SVR storms could be seen through tonight. The primary
hazard will be damaging winds...with some marginally SVR hail also
possible with the strongest storms. The more significant threat will
remain heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

By Thu...the upper ridge to the east will begin expanding
west...with AR becoming under more influence of the upper ridge.
This will tend to shift the better potential for SHRA/TSRA further
west of AR as well...though some fairly decent chances for
convection will remain across the WRN counties Thu into Thu night.
With the ridge expanding west...this will allow for temps to
increase as well...mainly from east to west. Highs will warm from
the upper 60s to upper 70s today...to the low 70s to mid 80s for Thu
afternoon. Lows will generally remain in the 60s.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Settled weather returns to the CWA as scattered showers come to and
end late Friday. Highest PoPs are held in west/southwest parts of
the CWA where showers will remain possible through Friday night as a
building ridges slowly pushes unsettled weather west into TX and OK.
Rainfall totals will be kept minimal as any precipitation will be
light in nature.

Into the weekend and early next week, skies will begin to clear and
temperatures will be on the rise. Temperatures look to rise above
normal under the presence of high pressure as highs rise into the
80s and 90s and lows into the 60s.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Clark-Cleburne-Conway-
Faulkner-Garland-Hot Spring-Lonoke-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Van Buren-White-Yell.

&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
311 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
311 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through
tonight as additional systems move over the state. Some areas of
heavy rainfall are possible over some portion of the
state...though the exact area of heaviest rainfall is uncertain at
this time. This will lead to an increased flash flood
threat...especially if the additional heavy rainfall falls on
already very saturated soils from recent observed very heavy
rainfall.

While the threat for severe weather is generally low...a strong
storm or two could be seen...with a briefly severe storm also
possible. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be
possible with the strongest storms. Again...the main hazardous
weather threat will be an increased flash flood threat through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of the area through Friday before drier weather returns
for the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible...leading
to an increased threat for additional flash flooding through
Friday. Beyond Friday...the threat for hazardous weather will
become low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

62/233

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
819 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W COLLEGEVILLE        34.63N  92.49W
05/19/2021  M4.48 INCH       SALINE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100648

67