Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
231 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will bring slightly cooler temperatures to
our region from tonight through Thursday.  As this high pressure
moves off the Carolina coast on Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will rise again to above normal.  Tropical moisture is forecast to
move north out of the Gulf on Sunday and into the first half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM...Widely scattered thunderstorms are firing near
the eastern Escarpment as expected, and will continue to increase
in coverage as they drift toward the SE across the Piedmont. The
latest SPC mesoanalysis page shows 3500-4000 J/kg of sbCAPE across
much of the Piedmont, as dewpoints remain in the lower 70s at
peak heating. Shear remains quite weak, but high downdraft CAPE
(1000-1300 J/kg) will support strong wind gusts. Damaging winds
should be the main threat with these storms.

A weak cold front should clear the area to the SE early this
evening, with drier air filtering in its wake. Skies should become
mostly clear and winds light, but the gradual drop in dewpoints
should limit fog potential. Still could see patchy fog and/or
stratus in spots, especially the mountain valleys. Lows will be
close to normal.

Dry, but still warm, high pressure will continue to nose into our
area from the NW on Tuesday under a deepening upper trough. Guidance
is in good agreement on profiles becoming too dry for even any
mountaintop convection. So going with a dry forecast. Highs will
be about a category above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 pm Monday: Anomalously low upper heights will predominate
over the East through much of the period. Weakening surface high
pressure overspreading the forecast area will support a continental
air mass with unseasonably dry air/low surface dewpoints (afternoon
values generally in the 40s over the mtns/50s elsewhere, 40s
possible even in the Piedmont Thursday). Temps will also be a few
degrees below climo through the period. All in all...a pleasant
couple of days for mid-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 pm Monday: With the upper trough expected to exit off the
East Coast by early in the medium range, the relatively dry air mass
will begin to modify late in the week, with temps likely returning
to above-normal levels by Friday (although one more day with dry/
50s dewpoints/convection-free conditions appears likely). After
Friday, forecast confidence does down the tubes, as global models
disagree on the intensity and track of a northern stream storm system
passing over or near the northeast Conus and the evolution of an
attendant frontal zone that will approach the Southeast next
weekend. Only adding to the confusion is the state of the tropics,
particularly with a disturbance that is expected to form over the
Gulf of Mexico later this week. I suppose once could say that
there's a consensus (albeit a weak one) that we could begin to see
indirect impacts from said system or its remnants...with an increase
in tropical moisture early next week. With this potential as well as
the approaching frontal zone, PoPs will be ramped up to the chance
range late Saturday...with chance PoPs persisting through the end of
the forecast period. Above-normal temps are expected to continue
into Saturday, while the potential for increasing/moisture clouds
warrants a return to seasonal max temps and warm min temps during
the latter half of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: The main concern will be convection
developing along a passing cold front the rest of this afternoon,
exiting to the SE early this evening. It seems tempo TSRA still
looks good for all the Upstate sites and KCLT. Activity should be
out of the area by around 00z. Drier air behind the front should
limit fog and stratus development, although patchy fog/stratus
in the mountain valleys cannot be ruled out. For now, going VFR
at all sites tonight into Tuesday. Winds will be out of the SW
to WSW across all the Piedmont TAF sites (except variable around
thunderstorm outflows), then shift to NW around daybreak Tuesday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the
end of the week. The potential for early morning fog and/or low cigs
should be mainly confined to the mountain valleys through the week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150715-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia this afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms
will develop earliest along and near the Blue Ridge Mountains by
midday, then move out over the adjacent foothills, and finally
strengthen over the Piedmont by late day. Cloud-to-ground lightning,
torrential rainfall, and very gusty winds will be possible with any
of these thunderstorms. A few storms will become severe, with
damaging wind gusts likely, especially over the western Piedmont of
North Carolina and the eastern Upstate of South Carolina late this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
454 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ036-037-142130-
Davie NC-Iredell NC-
454 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DAVIE AND
NORTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 454 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southeast of
Yadkinville to 14 miles south of Jonesville, and moving southeast at
10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bermuda Run, Harmony, Olin, Sheffield, Union Grove, Farmington and
Advance.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8085 3606 8090 3605 8050 3604 8049
      3606 8046 3600 8041 3599 8042 3596 8038
      3594 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 329DEG 8KT 3605 8053 3603 8079

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
457 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ006-010-011-142130-
Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Greater Greenville SC-
457 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE...EAST
CENTRAL ANDERSON AND NORTH CENTRAL ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 19 miles west of Laurens to 8 miles southeast of
Anderson, and moving south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Honea Path, Belton and Princeton.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8251 3446 8258 3459 8235 3451 8228
      3448 8231 3447 8231 3445 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 341DEG 10KT 3454 8236 3443 8255

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             3 SSW EARL              35.15N 81.55W
06/14/2021  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UP TO 1 INCH HAIL REPORTED SSW OF EARL.

&&

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
522 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ009-014-142215-
York SC-Chester SC-
522 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CHESTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 522 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southeast of
Rock Hill to 4 miles south of York, and moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, York, Lesslie, Catawba, Newport, Mcconnells and Edgemoor.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 8087 3490 8088 3487 8088 3486 8087
      3484 8087 3483 8090 3482 8090 3479 8088
      3476 8088 3481 8119 3504 8131 3493 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 307DEG 13KT 3486 8090 3494 8126

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
525 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ036-037-057-142200-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-
525 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DAVIE...NORTHEASTERN
IREDELL AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northeast of
Mocksville to 7 miles northeast of Statesville, and moving southeast
at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mocksville, Bermuda Run, Cooleemee, Harmony, Fork Church, Advance,
Turnersburg, Sheffield, Cool Springs and Woodleaf.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8037 3589 8040 3588 8042 3586 8039
      3584 8039 3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046
      3584 8048 3583 8049 3583 8048 3580 8047
      3574 8079 3594 8083 3602 8042 3601 8041
      3599 8042 3596 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 330DEG 8KT 3595 8043 3584 8077

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
555 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ036-057-142230-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-
555 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL IREDELL AND WESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 555 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Statesville, or 4 miles northwest of Cleveland, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Salisbury, Statesville, Cleveland, Mount Ulla, Piedmont Research
Station, Woodleaf and Cool Springs.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8067 3577 8086 3588 8072 3587 8071
      3585 8071 3585 8070 3586 8069 3568 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 320DEG 14KT 3577 8075

KRENTZ