Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
231 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will bring slightly cooler temperatures to
our region from tonight through Thursday.  As this high pressure
moves off the Carolina coast on Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will rise again to above normal.  Tropical moisture is forecast to
move north out of the Gulf on Sunday and into the first half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM...Widely scattered thunderstorms are firing near
the eastern Escarpment as expected, and will continue to increase
in coverage as they drift toward the SE across the Piedmont. The
latest SPC mesoanalysis page shows 3500-4000 J/kg of sbCAPE across
much of the Piedmont, as dewpoints remain in the lower 70s at
peak heating. Shear remains quite weak, but high downdraft CAPE
(1000-1300 J/kg) will support strong wind gusts. Damaging winds
should be the main threat with these storms.

A weak cold front should clear the area to the SE early this
evening, with drier air filtering in its wake. Skies should become
mostly clear and winds light, but the gradual drop in dewpoints
should limit fog potential. Still could see patchy fog and/or
stratus in spots, especially the mountain valleys. Lows will be
close to normal.

Dry, but still warm, high pressure will continue to nose into our
area from the NW on Tuesday under a deepening upper trough. Guidance
is in good agreement on profiles becoming too dry for even any
mountaintop convection. So going with a dry forecast. Highs will
be about a category above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 pm Monday: Anomalously low upper heights will predominate
over the East through much of the period. Weakening surface high
pressure overspreading the forecast area will support a continental
air mass with unseasonably dry air/low surface dewpoints (afternoon
values generally in the 40s over the mtns/50s elsewhere, 40s
possible even in the Piedmont Thursday). Temps will also be a few
degrees below climo through the period. All in all...a pleasant
couple of days for mid-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 pm Monday: With the upper trough expected to exit off the
East Coast by early in the medium range, the relatively dry air mass
will begin to modify late in the week, with temps likely returning
to above-normal levels by Friday (although one more day with dry/
50s dewpoints/convection-free conditions appears likely). After
Friday, forecast confidence does down the tubes, as global models
disagree on the intensity and track of a northern stream storm system
passing over or near the northeast Conus and the evolution of an
attendant frontal zone that will approach the Southeast next
weekend. Only adding to the confusion is the state of the tropics,
particularly with a disturbance that is expected to form over the
Gulf of Mexico later this week. I suppose once could say that
there's a consensus (albeit a weak one) that we could begin to see
indirect impacts from said system or its remnants...with an increase
in tropical moisture early next week. With this potential as well as
the approaching frontal zone, PoPs will be ramped up to the chance
range late Saturday...with chance PoPs persisting through the end of
the forecast period. Above-normal temps are expected to continue
into Saturday, while the potential for increasing/moisture clouds
warrants a return to seasonal max temps and warm min temps during
the latter half of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: The main concern will be convection
developing along a passing cold front the rest of this afternoon,
exiting to the SE early this evening. It seems tempo TSRA still
looks good for all the Upstate sites and KCLT. Activity should be
out of the area by around 00z. Drier air behind the front should
limit fog and stratus development, although patchy fog/stratus
in the mountain valleys cannot be ruled out. For now, going VFR
at all sites tonight into Tuesday. Winds will be out of the SW
to WSW across all the Piedmont TAF sites (except variable around
thunderstorm outflows), then shift to NW around daybreak Tuesday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the
end of the week. The potential for early morning fog and/or low cigs
should be mainly confined to the mountain valleys through the week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150715-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia this afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms
will develop earliest along and near the Blue Ridge Mountains by
midday, then move out over the adjacent foothills, and finally
strengthen over the Piedmont by late day. Cloud-to-ground lightning,
torrential rainfall, and very gusty winds will be possible with any
of these thunderstorms. A few storms will become severe, with
damaging wind gusts likely, especially over the western Piedmont of
North Carolina and the eastern Upstate of South Carolina late this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ018-026-141930-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-
306 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL STEPHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 305 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Carnesville, moving south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Carnesville, Martin, Avalon and Eastanolee.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3449 8337 3453 8321 3438 8310 3430 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 340DEG 9KT 3444 8328

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ001-002-005-141945-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
314 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL PICKENS AND
NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles west of Pickens
to 7 miles north of Walhalla, and moving south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Walhalla, Six Mile, Salem, Lake Keowee, Keowee Toxaway State Park,
Oconee State Park, Devils Fork State Park and Nine Times.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8308 3496 8275 3479 8278 3479 8288
      3481 8289 3481 8290 3479 8293 3478 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 014DEG 11KT 3491 8280 3488 8305

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
334 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ006-012-142015-
Laurens SC-Greater Greenville SC-
334 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Greenville Downtown, or over Mauldin, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mauldin, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fountain Inn, Donaldson Center,
Greenville Eastside and Fork Shoals.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8239 3484 8222 3480 8216 3480 8217
      3478 8215 3478 8213 3475 8212 3476 8211
      3474 8210 3474 8209 3472 8208 3472 8207
      3470 8207 3456 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 325DEG 8KT 3478 8231

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             SIX MILE                34.81N 82.82W
06/14/2021  E1.25 INCH       PICKENS            SC   PUBLIC

            ALSO WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS.

&&

BILL.MARTIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
357 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ070-SCZ009-142030-
Gaston NC-York SC-
357 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GASTON AND NORTH
CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 357 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Gastonia, or over Crowders Mountain State Park,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Bessemer City, South Gastonia, Clover, Crowders Mountain
State Park, Cramerton, Crowders and Bethany.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8124 3516 8134 3516 8133 3525 8132
      3529 8128 3522 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 312DEG 7KT 3520 8129

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
403 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ017-018-142030-
Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
403 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN STEPHENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN HABERSHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Toccoa, or near Mount Airy, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mount Airy, Cornelia and Boydville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 8345 3453 8331 3446 8340 3448 8347
      3449 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 312DEG 7KT 3451 8344

KRENTZ