Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

340 
WWUS52 KGSP 141843
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCC045-141900-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-210614T1900Z/
Greenville SC-
243 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTY...

At 242 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of
Greenville Downtown, or near Travelers Rest, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Travelers Rest, Paris Mountain State Park, Furman University,
Slater-Marietta and Taylors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Brief damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines over small
areas. A brief period of large hail is also possible. Seek shelter
inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8252 3496 8253 3497 8253 3498 8255
      3498 8253 3500 8254 3502 8253 3505 8236
      3493 8231 3492 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 355DEG 7KT 3499 8246 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will bring slightly cooler temperatures to
our region from tonight through Thursday.  As this high pressure
moves off the Carolina coast on Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will rise again to above normal.  Tropical moisture is forecast to
move north out of the Gulf on Sunday and into the first half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM...The forecast looks to be in good shape for the
morning update, as overall thinking hasn't changed. Minor tweaks
to the PoPs and sky cover to reflect a slightly slower ramp up of
convection. No changes to the max temps.

A weak cold front or sfc trough is currently moving thru the FA
from the northwest. Forcing from this boundary will interact
with 3000-3500 sbCAPE values during peak heating arising from
above normal max temps to create solid scattered PoPs and strong
convection. Activity should trigger by early afternoon along and
east of the Blue Ridge, but with a focus in forcing and better
instability over the foothills and downstream into the Piedmont.
Profiles exhibit some 30 to 35 deg K of late day theta E lapses
and downdraft CAPE should be high east of the mountains. This will
yield a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for the eastern half
of the forecast area, with damaging winds being the primary threat.

A deepening 500 mb trough will push toward the Appalachians late
tonight, however, moisture will become increasingly sparse - with
mainly just low-level moisture for spotty showers in the northwest
upslope flow. Drying will continue through the nighttime hours as
the boundary moves to the east. Min temps will remain near to just
above climatology.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Monday: The frontal boundary should be well to our
south and east by daybreak Tuesday.  Northwesterly surface flow at
the surface will allow dry air to filter into the area, and RHs take
a nosedive.  Through Thursday morning, a continental high migrates
across the lower Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.  Aloft, the
deep 500mb trough responsible for last weekend's weather pattern
pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and a weak shortwave rotates
around it on Tuesday, providing modest synoptic uplift.  With
limited moisture in place at this point, there's only a very limited
QPF response in a few models, restricted to the mountain ridgetops
where terrain will enhance lift, and so the grids reflect minimal
PoPs throughout. Otherwise, expecting downsloping off the Smokies to
counteract the weakening CAA and bring temps to a few degrees above
normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday: The surface high slowly loses its veracity
as it migrates eastward.  This should keep conditions dry through
Thursday.  On Friday, as the high pressure center crosses east of
us, weak southwesterly flow will begin carrying Gulf moisture into
the region, so dewpoints should climb a few degrees entering the
weekend.  Saturday sees the arrival of a cold front from the
northwest, in association with an occluding low over the Great
Lakes.  Meanwhile, a tropical low exits the Gulf of Mexico.  Models
have flip-flopped considerably the last few runs over whether
rainfall from this system will be suppressed by an earlier arrival
of dry midlatitude air, or enhanced by low-level forcing near the
frontal circulation.  The potential is there for some significant
rainfall, but the details are unclear and it's too soon to say
whether the ingredients will pan out.  For now, have stuck with the
default NBM PoP/QPF output.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: The main concern will be convection
developing along a passing cold front the rest of this afternoon,
exiting to the SE early this evening. It seems tempo TSRA still
looks good for all the Upstate sites and KCLT. Activity should be
out of the area by around 00z. Drier air behind the front should
limit fog and stratus development, although patchy fog/stratus
in the mountain valleys cannot be ruled out. For now, going VFR
at all sites tonight into Tuesday. Winds will be out of the SW
to WSW across all the Piedmont TAF sites (except variable around
thunderstorm outflows), then shift to NW around daybreak Tuesday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the
end of the week. The potential for early morning fog and/or low cigs
should be mainly confined to the mountain valleys through the week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150715-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia this afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms
will develop earliest along and near the Blue Ridge Mountains by
midday, then move out over the adjacent foothills, and finally
strengthen over the Piedmont by late day. Cloud-to-ground lightning,
torrential rainfall, and very gusty winds will be possible with any
of these thunderstorms. A few storms will become severe, with
damaging wind gusts likely, especially over the western Piedmont of
North Carolina and the eastern Upstate of South Carolina late this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
133 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ018-SCZ001-141800-
Stephens GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
133 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL STEPHENS AND WEST
CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 133 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Toccoa, or near Tallulah Gorge State Park, moving
south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8337 3469 8334 3470 8335 3473 8335
      3475 8333 3477 8332 3477 8330 3465 8321
      3460 8338 3465 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 344DEG 7KT 3471 8332

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
207 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ064-SCZ002-141830-
Transylvania NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
207 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 206 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Brevard, or near Rosman, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rosman, Table Rock State Park, Jocassee Gorges, Gorges State Park,
Sassafras Mountain, Rocky Bottom and Sunset.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 8280 3509 8273 3508 8274 3508 8275
      3507 8275 3507 8277 3505 8275 3505 8274
      3506 8273 3505 8272 3506 8270 3503 8267
      3497 8286 3513 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 334DEG 10KT 3510 8282

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
210 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ068-141845-
Cleveland NC-
210 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 210 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Morganton, or near Casar, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Belwood, Casar and Polkville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8166 3557 8161 3557 8160 3556 8157
      3556 8156 3557 8154 3555 8151 3552 8151
      3550 8150 3543 8155 3543 8170 3558 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 024DEG 7KT 3553 8160

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
220 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ003-006-141845-
Greenville Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
220 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 220 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Greenville Downtown, or near Travelers Rest, moving
south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Travelers Rest, Slater-Marietta, Paris Mountain State Park,
Tigerville and Furman University.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8252 3496 8253 3508 8251 3509 8236
      3494 8231 3492 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 356DEG 9KT 3502 8244

KRENTZ