Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
231 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will bring slightly cooler temperatures to
our region from tonight through Thursday.  As this high pressure
moves off the Carolina coast on Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will rise again to above normal.  Tropical moisture is forecast to
move north out of the Gulf on Sunday and into the first half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM...Widely scattered thunderstorms are firing near
the eastern Escarpment as expected, and will continue to increase
in coverage as they drift toward the SE across the Piedmont. The
latest SPC mesoanalysis page shows 3500-4000 J/kg of sbCAPE across
much of the Piedmont, as dewpoints remain in the lower 70s at
peak heating. Shear remains quite weak, but high downdraft CAPE
(1000-1300 J/kg) will support strong wind gusts. Damaging winds
should be the main threat with these storms.

A weak cold front should clear the area to the SE early this
evening, with drier air filtering in its wake. Skies should become
mostly clear and winds light, but the gradual drop in dewpoints
should limit fog potential. Still could see patchy fog and/or
stratus in spots, especially the mountain valleys. Lows will be
close to normal.

Dry, but still warm, high pressure will continue to nose into our
area from the NW on Tuesday under a deepening upper trough. Guidance
is in good agreement on profiles becoming too dry for even any
mountaintop convection. So going with a dry forecast. Highs will
be about a category above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 pm Monday: Anomalously low upper heights will predominate
over the East through much of the period. Weakening surface high
pressure overspreading the forecast area will support a continental
air mass with unseasonably dry air/low surface dewpoints (afternoon
values generally in the 40s over the mtns/50s elsewhere, 40s
possible even in the Piedmont Thursday). Temps will also be a few
degrees below climo through the period. All in all...a pleasant
couple of days for mid-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 pm Monday: With the upper trough expected to exit off the
East Coast by early in the medium range, the relatively dry air mass
will begin to modify late in the week, with temps likely returning
to above-normal levels by Friday (although one more day with dry/
50s dewpoints/convection-free conditions appears likely). After
Friday, forecast confidence does down the tubes, as global models
disagree on the intensity and track of a northern stream storm system
passing over or near the northeast Conus and the evolution of an
attendant frontal zone that will approach the Southeast next
weekend. Only adding to the confusion is the state of the tropics,
particularly with a disturbance that is expected to form over the
Gulf of Mexico later this week. I suppose once could say that
there's a consensus (albeit a weak one) that we could begin to see
indirect impacts from said system or its remnants...with an increase
in tropical moisture early next week. With this potential as well as
the approaching frontal zone, PoPs will be ramped up to the chance
range late Saturday...with chance PoPs persisting through the end of
the forecast period. Above-normal temps are expected to continue
into Saturday, while the potential for increasing/moisture clouds
warrants a return to seasonal max temps and warm min temps during
the latter half of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: The main concern will be convection
developing along a passing cold front the rest of this afternoon,
exiting to the SE early this evening. It seems tempo TSRA still
looks good for all the Upstate sites and KCLT. Activity should be
out of the area by around 00z. Drier air behind the front should
limit fog and stratus development, although patchy fog/stratus
in the mountain valleys cannot be ruled out. For now, going VFR
at all sites tonight into Tuesday. Winds will be out of the SW
to WSW across all the Piedmont TAF sites (except variable around
thunderstorm outflows), then shift to NW around daybreak Tuesday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the
end of the week. The potential for early morning fog and/or low cigs
should be mainly confined to the mountain valleys through the week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150715-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia this afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms
will develop earliest along and near the Blue Ridge Mountains by
midday, then move out over the adjacent foothills, and finally
strengthen over the Piedmont by late day. Cloud-to-ground lightning,
torrential rainfall, and very gusty winds will be possible with any
of these thunderstorms. A few storms will become severe, with
damaging wind gusts likely, especially over the western Piedmont of
North Carolina and the eastern Upstate of South Carolina late this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
210 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ068-141845-
Cleveland NC-
210 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 210 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Morganton, or near Casar, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Belwood, Casar and Polkville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8166 3557 8161 3557 8160 3556 8157
      3556 8156 3557 8154 3555 8151 3552 8151
      3550 8150 3543 8155 3543 8170 3558 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 024DEG 7KT 3553 8160

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
220 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ003-006-141845-
Greenville Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
220 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 220 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Greenville Downtown, or near Travelers Rest, moving
south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Travelers Rest, Slater-Marietta, Paris Mountain State Park,
Tigerville and Furman University.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8252 3496 8253 3508 8251 3509 8236
      3494 8231 3492 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 356DEG 9KT 3502 8244

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ018-141900-
Stephens GA-
229 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT STEPHENS COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

At 229 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Toccoa, moving south at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Martin, Avalon, Eastanolee and Boydville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 8337 3462 8324 3461 8323 3461 8320
      3460 8319 3450 8315 3448 8318 3447 8338
      3446 8340 3447 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 350DEG 12KT 3453 8329

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ002-141915-
Pickens Mountains SC-
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 244 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Pickens, or near Jocassee Gorges, moving south at
10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lake Keowee, Keowee Toxaway State Park, Jocassee Gorges, Lake
Jocassee, Sunset, Nine Times and Rocky Bottom.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 8291 3491 8290 3494 8290 3495 8291
      3496 8291 3497 8292 3498 8294 3499 8294
      3501 8293 3501 8291 3503 8292 3504 8279
      3489 8273 3481 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 359DEG 10KT 3497 8286

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ001-141915-
Oconee Mountains SC-
252 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Walhalla, or over Salem, moving south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Walhalla, Salem, Devils Fork State Park and Lake Keowee.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8304 3496 8292 3490 8290 3488 8291
      3484 8290 3481 8290 3475 8298 3475 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 359DEG 10KT 3489 8298

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ006-007-141930-
Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND WEST
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Greenville Downtown, or near Furman University, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville, Greer,
Taylors, Berea, Welcome, Travelers Rest, Paris Mountain State Park
and GSP Airport.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8246 3478 8245 3482 8249 3483 8248
      3484 8248 3485 8249 3488 8249 3491 8250
      3492 8252 3496 8253 3502 8239 3503 8235
      3488 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 334DEG 11KT 3493 8242

KRENTZ