Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
231 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will bring slightly cooler temperatures to
our region from tonight through Thursday.  As this high pressure
moves off the Carolina coast on Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will rise again to above normal.  Tropical moisture is forecast to
move north out of the Gulf on Sunday and into the first half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM...Widely scattered thunderstorms are firing near
the eastern Escarpment as expected, and will continue to increase
in coverage as they drift toward the SE across the Piedmont. The
latest SPC mesoanalysis page shows 3500-4000 J/kg of sbCAPE across
much of the Piedmont, as dewpoints remain in the lower 70s at
peak heating. Shear remains quite weak, but high downdraft CAPE
(1000-1300 J/kg) will support strong wind gusts. Damaging winds
should be the main threat with these storms.

A weak cold front should clear the area to the SE early this
evening, with drier air filtering in its wake. Skies should become
mostly clear and winds light, but the gradual drop in dewpoints
should limit fog potential. Still could see patchy fog and/or
stratus in spots, especially the mountain valleys. Lows will be
close to normal.

Dry, but still warm, high pressure will continue to nose into our
area from the NW on Tuesday under a deepening upper trough. Guidance
is in good agreement on profiles becoming too dry for even any
mountaintop convection. So going with a dry forecast. Highs will
be about a category above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 pm Monday: Anomalously low upper heights will predominate
over the East through much of the period. Weakening surface high
pressure overspreading the forecast area will support a continental
air mass with unseasonably dry air/low surface dewpoints (afternoon
values generally in the 40s over the mtns/50s elsewhere, 40s
possible even in the Piedmont Thursday). Temps will also be a few
degrees below climo through the period. All in all...a pleasant
couple of days for mid-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 pm Monday: With the upper trough expected to exit off the
East Coast by early in the medium range, the relatively dry air mass
will begin to modify late in the week, with temps likely returning
to above-normal levels by Friday (although one more day with dry/
50s dewpoints/convection-free conditions appears likely). After
Friday, forecast confidence does down the tubes, as global models
disagree on the intensity and track of a northern stream storm system
passing over or near the northeast Conus and the evolution of an
attendant frontal zone that will approach the Southeast next
weekend. Only adding to the confusion is the state of the tropics,
particularly with a disturbance that is expected to form over the
Gulf of Mexico later this week. I suppose once could say that
there's a consensus (albeit a weak one) that we could begin to see
indirect impacts from said system or its remnants...with an increase
in tropical moisture early next week. With this potential as well as
the approaching frontal zone, PoPs will be ramped up to the chance
range late Saturday...with chance PoPs persisting through the end of
the forecast period. Above-normal temps are expected to continue
into Saturday, while the potential for increasing/moisture clouds
warrants a return to seasonal max temps and warm min temps during
the latter half of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: The main concern will be convection
developing along a passing cold front the rest of this afternoon,
exiting to the SE early this evening. It seems tempo TSRA still
looks good for all the Upstate sites and KCLT. Activity should be
out of the area by around 00z. Drier air behind the front should
limit fog and stratus development, although patchy fog/stratus
in the mountain valleys cannot be ruled out. For now, going VFR
at all sites tonight into Tuesday. Winds will be out of the SW
to WSW across all the Piedmont TAF sites (except variable around
thunderstorm outflows), then shift to NW around daybreak Tuesday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will dominate our weather through the
end of the week. The potential for early morning fog and/or low cigs
should be mainly confined to the mountain valleys through the week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150715-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia this afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms
will develop earliest along and near the Blue Ridge Mountains by
midday, then move out over the adjacent foothills, and finally
strengthen over the Piedmont by late day. Cloud-to-ground lightning,
torrential rainfall, and very gusty winds will be possible with any
of these thunderstorms. A few storms will become severe, with
damaging wind gusts likely, especially over the western Piedmont of
North Carolina and the eastern Upstate of South Carolina late this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             SIX MILE                34.81N 82.82W
06/14/2021  E1.25 INCH       PICKENS            SC   PUBLIC

            ALSO WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS.

&&

BILL.MARTIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
357 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ070-SCZ009-142030-
Gaston NC-York SC-
357 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GASTON AND NORTH
CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 357 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Gastonia, or over Crowders Mountain State Park,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Bessemer City, South Gastonia, Clover, Crowders Mountain
State Park, Cramerton, Crowders and Bethany.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8124 3516 8134 3516 8133 3525 8132
      3529 8128 3522 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 312DEG 7KT 3520 8129

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
403 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

GAZ017-018-142030-
Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
403 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN STEPHENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN HABERSHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Toccoa, or near Mount Airy, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mount Airy, Cornelia and Boydville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 8345 3453 8331 3446 8340 3448 8347
      3449 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 312DEG 7KT 3451 8344

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
410 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ007>009-013-142100-
York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
410 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL YORK...EAST CENTRAL
SPARTANBURG...CENTRAL CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

At 410 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Gaffney, or 4 miles east of Cowpens, moving east
at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gaffney, Cowpens, Pacolet Mills, Pacolet, Cherokee Falls,
Draytonville, Thicketty, Saratt and Kings Creek.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8186 3509 8179 3508 8141 3480 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 283DEG 12KT 3503 8173

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
414 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SCZ004>006-010-142045-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
414 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE...
NORTHERN ANDERSON...SOUTHERN PICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 414 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 9 miles southeast of Easley to 3 miles southwest
of Clemson, and moving south at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clemson, Anderson, Powdersville, Piedmont, Central, Williamston,
Northlake, Pendleton, West Pelzer and Lake Hartwell.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 8291 3480 8249 3457 8236 3448 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 342DEG 20KT 3472 8248 3465 8287

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
415 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ036-056-069-071-142100-
Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
415 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...EASTERN
LINCOLN...SOUTH CENTRAL IREDELL AND NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Newton, or 5 miles east of Maiden, moving east at
15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Westport, Lake Norman, Denver, Ramsey Creek Park,
Maiden, Cornelius, Mooresville, Davidson and Lowesville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8093 3539 8097 3539 8095 3540 8096
      3540 8100 3551 8123 3568 8116 3560 8081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 290DEG 11KT 3557 8112

JPT