Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

927 
WWUS55 KFGZ 170558
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1058 PM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

AZC025-170607-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-210817T0615Z/
Yavapai-
1058 PM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning in extreme southeast Yavapai 
County near Horseshoe Reservoir has moved out of the area. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight MST for
west central Arizona.

LAT...LON 3400 11174 3403 11199 3419 11190 3409 11151
      3400 11154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0554Z 028DEG 13KT 3398 11176 

$$
JJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
909 PM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue in Gila and southeast Yavapai County through late tonight,
with mainly quiet weather elsewhere. Expect widespread showers
and storms again on Tuesday and Wednesday, before a drying trend
arrives toward the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developed this
afternoon and evening, with reports of large hail and gusty winds.
A few areas of flooding have also been reported. At 9 PM, the
storms have organized into a line stretching from Happy Jack, to
near Payson, to Globe. The line is moving toward the southwest and
will affect Payson and much of Gila County over the next couple of
hours. There is also a chance of storms moving into mainly
southeast Yavapai through around midnight as well. Instability in
these areas will continue to allow for strong to severe storms,
and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for Yavapai/Gila and
points south until midnight. Elsewhere, the chance of any
additional storms is fairly low for the rest of tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /258 PM MST/...Very strong and severe
thunderstorms currently developing over the central and eastern
Rim, with a broader area of somewhat weaker storms over the NE.
Current mesoscale analyses show strong instability along and
southwest of the Rim, with the greatest instability still
analyzed over Yavapai County. We expect thunderstorms to continue
develop across the area this afternoon and evening, with the
strongest storms evolving toward the south, possibly growing
upscale into a an MCS as it organizes along outflow boundaries.
Greatest threat this afternoon and evening will be damaging winds
and large hail. Training (redeveloping) storms may create local
flash flood threats. Recent high- resolution models support this
development. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Wednesday. Large hail, localized flash flooding
and very gusty outflow winds are the main hazards. Winds outside
storms will be light, with temperatures cooling Tuesday and
Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the instability will be pulled farther north ahead of
a developing trough to the west. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected once again, but the nature of the
convection will be different - that is - storms will be most
numerous along and north of the Rim on Tuesday, with slowly
eastward-moving storms. The slow motion of the storms may engender
a greater flash flood threat, and greater shear could promote
organized severe thunderstorms. Thursday through Saturday...Drier
weather is expected on Thursday through Saturday, with below
normal temperatures expected.

The strong trough moving across the N Rockies will push the
greatest thunderstorm threat on Wednesday into NE Arizona. Cooler
temperatures and drier weather is expected later in the week as
the trough sweeps the moisture out of the area, and brings a break
to this current round of monsoon activity. Current ensemble
solutions indicate that Arizona should be generally dry through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...A line of thunderstorms
pushing toward the southwest across Gila and possibly southeast
Yavapai County through around 07Z-09Z. Storms producing hail and
wind gusts to 50 kts with localized IFR conditions. After 09Z, only
a slight chance of storms in far southern Yavapai, with VFR
elsewhere. Another round of storms expected again after 18Z Tuesday.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected through Wednesday. Large hail, localized flash
flooding and very gusty outflow winds are the main hazards. Winds
outside storms will be light, with temperatures cooling Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Drier weather is expected on Thursday
through Saturday, with below normal temperatures expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ/BAK
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
449 PM MST MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FLOOD            CONCHO                  34.48N 109.61W
08/16/2021                   APACHE             AZ   PUBLIC

            MANY ROADS FLOODED. WATER UP TO THE DOORSTEP
            OF THE BUSINESS THAT WAS CONTACTED.

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
517 PM MST MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             1 NE GANADO             35.71N 109.54W
08/16/2021  E0.75 INCH       APACHE             AZ   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             2 E FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT   35.14N 111.63W
08/16/2021  M2.50 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALONG LAKE MARY ROAD. SPOTTER REPORTS
            SEVERAL HOMES WITH ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

JJ