Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

886 
WWUS55 KFGZ 162255
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 PM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

AZC005-162304-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-210816T2315Z/
Coconino-
355 PM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COCONINO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight MST for
east central Arizona.

LAT...LON 3424 11122 3433 11101 3421 11090 3411 11119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 334DEG 14KT 3422 11108 

$$

AZC007-162315-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-210816T2315Z/
Gila-
355 PM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST
FOR GILA COUNTY...

At 354 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Haigler Creek,
or 14 miles east of Payson, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Haigler Creek, Hunter Creek, Christopher Creek, Bear Flat,
Christopher Creek Campground, Alderwood Campground, Sharp Creek
Campground and Haigler Canyon Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 11122 3433 11101 3421 11090 3411 11119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 334DEG 14KT 3422 11108 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ET

188 
WWUS55 KFGZ 162312
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
412 PM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

AZC007-162322-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-210816T2315Z/
Gila-
412 PM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GILA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 415
PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight MST for
east central Arizona.

LAT...LON 3424 11122 3433 11101 3421 11090 3411 11119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 334DEG 14KT 3416 11105 

$$

ET

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
258 PM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening,
with storms most numerous along and south of the Mogollon Rim
where a few strong to severe storms are possible. Expect
widespread showers and storms again on Tuesday and Wednesday,
before a drying trend arrives toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very strong and severe thunderstorms currently
developing over the central and eastern Rim, with a broader area
of somewhat weaker storms over the NE. Current mesoscale analyses
show strong instability along and southwest of the Rim, with the
greatest instability still analyzed over Yavapai County. We expect
thunderstorms to continue develop across the area this afternoon
and evening, with the strongest storms evolving toward the south,
possibly growing upscale into a an MCS as it organizes along
outflow boundaries. Greatest threat this afternoon and evening
will be damaging winds and large hail. Training (redeveloping)
storms may create local flash flood threats. Recent high-
resolution models support this development.

On Tuesday, the instability will be pulled farther north ahead of
a developing trough to the west. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected once again, but the nature of the
convection will be different - that is - storms will be most
numerous along and north of the Rim on Tuesday, with slowly
eastward-moving storms. The slow motion of the storms may
engender a greater flash flood threat, and greater shear could
promote organized severe thunderstorms.

The strong trough moving across the N Rockies will push the
greatest thunderstorm threat on Wednesday into NE Arizona. Cooler
temperatures and drier weather is expected later in the week as
the trough sweeps the moisture out of the area, and brings a break
to this current round of monsoon activity. Current ensemble
solutions indicate that Arizona should be generally dry through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, with
coverage increasing south of the Mogollon Rim after 01Z. Localized
IFR conditions expected in and near strongest storms. Storms will
decrease from north to south after 04Z, and develop again after
18Z on Tue. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Wednesday. Large hail, localized flash flooding
and very gusty outflow winds are the main hazards. Winds outside
storms will be light, with temperatures cooling Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Drier weather is expected on Thursday
through Saturday, with below normal temperatures expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             4 N WILLIAMS            35.33N 112.18W
08/15/2021  E1.75 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            I DONT REMEMBER THE TIME, PROBABLY ABOUT THE
            SIZE OF A GOLF BALL. N CATARACT DR WILLIAMS,
            AZ. (TIME ESTIMATED FROM WARNING).

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1142 AM MST MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             7 NNW WILLIAMS          35.36N 112.20W
08/15/2021  E1.75 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            HAILSTONES AT JUNIPINE ESTATES SUNDAY
            AFTERNOON NORTH OF WILLIAMS. (PHOTO INCLUDED
            IN REPORT WITH WHAT LOOKED LIKE GOLF BALL
            SIZED HAIL). IT WAS A LITTLE AFTER 2:00PM.
            OUR VEHICLES TOOK DIRECT HITS, EVEN TO THE
            GLASS, BUT THE STONES WOULD SHATTER LIKE
            SHRAPNEL SENDING FRAGMENTS OVER 50 FEET IN
            ALL DIRECTIONS. ONLY LASTED A FEW MINUTES.

&&

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1255 PM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021

AZZ011-161930-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
1255 PM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...Two strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Apache County
through 130 PM MDT...

At 1253 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking two strong thunderstorms
near Lupton and Window Rock, or 23 miles west of Gallup, moving
southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lupton, Oak Springs Valley, Window Rock and St. Michaels.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 350 and 359.
 State Route 264 between mile markers 462 and 474.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 10905 3519 10917 3580 10932 3582 10911
      3548 10904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 329DEG 6KT 3539 10913

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1217 PM MST MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 PM     HAIL             HEBER-OVERGAARD         34.42N 110.57W
08/16/2021  E0.50 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
200 PM MST MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     HAIL             2 WSW HEBER-OVERGAARD   34.40N 110.59W
08/16/2021  E1.00 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
249 PM MST MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             8 E MOUNTAINAIRE        35.08N 111.52W
08/16/2021  E1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MD