Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

164 
WWUS55 KFGZ 160821
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
121 AM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

AZC025-160845-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-210816T0845Z/
Yavapai-
121 AM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM MST
FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 121 AM MST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles north of Gladden to near Aguila, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
Yavapai County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 11333 3423 11328 3400 11304 3400 11333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 037DEG 12KT 3408 11329 3390 11311 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MCT

964 
WWUS55 KFGZ 160835
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
135 AM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

AZC025-160845-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-210816T0845Z/
Yavapai-
135 AM MST Mon Aug 16 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
145 AM MST...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds and heavy rain are still
possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3421 11333 3423 11328 3400 11304 3400 11333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0835Z 037DEG 12KT 3405 11332 3387 11314 

$$

MCT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
900 PM MST Sun Aug 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms will continue each day through
Monday, with the best coverage along and south of the Mogollon Rim
where a few strong to severe storms are possible. Expect more
widespread showers and storms and cooler temperatures by mid next
week before a drying trend arrives toward the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Strong thunderstorms are still ongoing this evening near
I-40 at Bellemont and Parks along with areas in northern and
central Gila County. Flash flooding, hail, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning are being observed. Be sure to never attempt to
cross flooded roadways and head indoors if there is a thunderstorm
near you. These storms are producing dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
midnight. Isolated showers and storms will continue overnight but
coverage will decrease over the next 3-4 hours. Updates were made
to precipitation chances to fit current radar trends. Otherwise,
no major forecast updates are expected this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /248 PM MST/...Thunderstorms have developed early
this afternoon over the higher terrain of Coconino County as well
as the Black Mesa and Chuska Mountains region. A few of the storms
have been severe with hail to 1" indicated by radar. Storm motion
is toward the southwest. As the storms over Coconino County move
into an area of even higher instability and increased wind shear
over Yavapai County, there will be a threat for additional severe
weather and an isolated flood threat through mid evening. The
storms over Navajo Nation should push southwestward toward Winslow
and the I-40 corridor over the next few hours, as well as the
White Mountains region.

For Monday - the mid level steering flow turns more northerly as
the high pressure center shifts over central California. Moisture
remains plentiful along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Model data
has been consistent indicating a disturbance rotating southward
from UT/CO into Arizona during the afternoon. Several of the hi-
res models show a couple of lines of thunderstorms moving south
across areas from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns into Yavapai and
Gila counties during the late afternoon and evening. With a very
moist and unstable environment in place, there will be a threat of
severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding in these areas
and this is reflected in both the SPC and WPC outlooks for severe
weather and excessive rainfall.

Tuesday and Wednesday - a trough dipping down into the northwest
US will turn the steering flow from the west and eventually
southwest. Moisture should flow farther north and give areas along
and north of the Mogollon Rim higher storm chances and keep them a
bit lower for Yavapai especially by Wednesday. The risk of
localized flash flooding and a few strong storms will persist.

Thursday into next weekend - looking like at least a brief period
of drier conditions following the trough passage. Chance of storms
lingers Thursday but isolated at best by Friday and beyond. A
gradual warming trend but only back to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Look for mainly VFR conditions
over the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms continue west of a line from
KGCN to KFLG. Locally heavy rain and wind gusts to 40 kts
possible near any storms. Otherwise, generally light winds.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop after 19Z
Monday. Coverage of storms should increase from Sunday with some
storms along/south of a KFLG-KSJN line possibly severe, with hail
and wind gusts 40+ kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to
increase Monday and Tuesday. Localized flash flooding and very gusty
outflow winds are the main hazards. Winds outside storms will be
light, with temperatures cooling slightly on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
remain high on Wednesday, with a gradual downturn by Friday.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1133 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             2 NNW PAULDEN           34.91N 112.48W
08/15/2021  E0.50 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTS 0.50 INCH HAIL IN PAULDEN.

&&

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1137 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNE IRON SPRINGS      34.66N 112.53W
08/15/2021  M58 MPH          YAVAPAI            AZ   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW7304 PRESCOTT.

&&

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1150 PM MST Sun Aug 15 2021

AZZ008-037-160715-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
1150 PM MST Sun Aug 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Yavapai County
through 1215 AM MST...

At 1149 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Yavapai Campground, or 7 miles west of Prescott Valley, moving
southwest at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Prescott, Yavapai Campground, Downtown Prescott, Ponderosa Park,
Prescott Airport, Williamson Valley, Indian Hill West Prescott, Oak
Knoll Village, Prescott Gateway Mall, Iron Springs, Lower Wolf Creek
Campground and White Spar Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 89 between mile markers 302 and 322.
 State Route 89A between mile markers 318 and 321.
 State Route 69 between mile markers 294 and 296.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 11256 3464 11236 3443 11247 3452 11271
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 027DEG 27KT 3458 11253

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1230 AM MST MON AUG 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             CHINO VALLEY            34.76N 112.45W
08/15/2021  M1.00 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY THREE
            DIFFERENT SOURCES ON FB AT 11:15 PM
            INCLUDING PHOTOS.

&&

CRK