Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

427 
WWUS55 KFGZ 160319
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
819 PM MST Sun Aug 15 2021

AZC017-160329-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-210816T0330Z/
Navajo-
819 PM MST Sun Aug 15 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NAVAJO COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm in the Show Low area which prompted the warning has 
weakened below severe limits, and no longer poses an immediate 
threat to life or property. Therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled.

LAT...LON 3435 11004 3426 10987 3402 11002 3418 11029
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 026DEG 9KT 3419 11003 

$$

McCollum

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
248 PM MST Sun Aug 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms will continue each day through
Monday, with the best coverage along and south of the Mogollon Rim
where a few strong to severe storms are possible. Expect more
widespread showers and storms and cooler temperatures by mid next
week before a drying trend arrives toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon
over the higher terrain of Coconino County as well as the Black
Mesa and Chuska Mountains region. A few of the storms have been
severe with hail to 1" indicated by radar. Storm motion is toward
the southwest. As the storms over Coconino County move into an
area of even higher instability and increased wind shear over
Yavapai County, there will be a threat for additional severe
weather and an isolated flood threat through mid evening. The
storms over Navajo Nation should push southwestward toward Winslow
and the I-40 corridor over the next few hours, as well as the
White Mountains region.

For Monday - the mid level steering flow turns more northerly as
the high pressure center shifts over central California. Moisture
remains plentiful along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Model data
has been consistent indicating a disturbance rotating southward
from UT/CO into Arizona during the afternoon. Several of the
hi-res models show a couple of lines of thunderstorms moving south
across areas from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns into Yavapai and
Gila counties during the late afternoon and evening. With a very
moist and unstable environment in place, there will be a threat of
severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding in these areas
and this is reflected in both the SPC and WPC outlooks for severe
weather and excessive rainfall.

Tuesday and Wednesday - a trough dipping down into the northwest
US will turn the steering flow from the west and eventually
southwest. Moisture should flow farther north and give areas along
and north of the Mogollon Rim higher storm chances and keep them a
bit lower for Yavapai especially by Wednesday. The risk of
localized flash flooding and a few strong storms will persist.

Thursday into next weekend - looking like at least a brief period
of drier conditions following the trough passage. Chance of storms
lingers Thursday but isolated at best by Friday and beyond. A
gradual warming trend but only back to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Look for mainly VFR conditions
over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to push toward the southwest this
afternoon, gradually diminishing after 03Z-05Z. Locally heavy rain
and wind gusts to 40 kts possible near any storms. Otherwise,
generally light winds. Another round of thunderstorms is expected to
develop after 19Z Monday. Coverage of storms should be higher than
today, with some storms along/south of a KFLG-KSJN line possibly
severe, with hail and wind gusts 40+ kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to
increase Monday and Tuesday. Localized flash flooding and very gusty
outflow winds are the main hazards. Winds outside storms will be
light, with temperatures cooling slightly on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
remain high on Wednesday, with a gradual downturn by Friday.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
231 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             7 NNW WILLIAMS          35.37N 112.20W
08/15/2021  E1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL THE SIZE OF A QUARTER IS CONFIRMED BY A
            TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER.

&&

NL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
409 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             WHITE CONE              35.60N 110.07W
08/15/2021  E1.00 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC ESTIMATED HAIL THE SIZE OF A QUARTER.

&&

NL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
432 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             WHITE CONE              35.61N 110.07W
08/15/2021  E1.00 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT WITH PHOTO OF QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

NL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
643 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             2 WSW NUTRIOSO          33.95N 109.25W
08/15/2021  E0.70 INCH       APACHE             AZ   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

ET