Special Weather Statement, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
610 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...The forthcoming TAFs have been updated to reflect an
earlier onset of squall line passage through the aerodromes today.
Hazardous aviation conditions are anticipated until the squall
line moves east and out of the region later today.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021/

SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Convection has begun to
initiate over the neighboring Mexican states of Nuevo Leon and
Coahuila, and it is reflected in the current run of the HRRR
model. This model, as well as others, continue to suggest that a
mesoscale convective cluster will initiate west and north of the
BRO CWFA and then work through Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley this morning and afternoon. With the entire region
still in a Slight Risk of severe weather per the Storm Prediction
Center, will maintain the mention of large hail and damaging
winds for today, but will remove it for tonight, as the
atmosphere will likely be worked over sufficiently to prevent
these threats at that time. One persistent threat for the entire
short term forecast period, however, will be heavy rain, and thus
will maintain the inherited Flash Flood Watch. The Watch may need
to be trimmed back a little for Thursday, with the idea that it
might be able to be ended around sunrise Thursday morning due to
projected lesser rainfall amounts on Thursday. However, will keep
status quo for now and allow successive shifts to weigh any Watch
changes at that time.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): The long term will be
wetter and cooler than average through the period. A mid level
shortwave trough will pinch off from the main flow and hover over
deep South Texas and Northeast Mexico through much of the long term.
This mid level pattern will combine with low to mid level moisture
as a moderate southeast flow persists, keeping rain chances in the
picture through early next week. The increased cloud cover and rain
potential will help moderate temperatures and keep highs a few
degrees below normal. Winds will remain light to moderate out of the
east or southeast through early next week.

MARINE:
Thursday Night through Sunday Night...Moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds and moderate to high wave heights will prevail
through the period. As a result, low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible on the Gulf waters.

Thursday Night through Sunday Night...Moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds and moderate to high wave heights will prevail
through the period. As a result, low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible on the Gulf waters.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  69  83  72 /  80  70  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          87  70  86  72 /  80  70  30  20
HARLINGEN            86  68  86  71 /  80  60  30  20
MCALLEN              85  68  88  71 /  80  40  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  68  90  71 /  90  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  72  79  75 /  80  70  30  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ256-257-351.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ248>257-351-
     353.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
540 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ248>257-351-353-201100-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
540 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley until 1 PM CDT this afternoon.

There is a High Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South Padre
Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley until 1 PM CDT Thursday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Strong to
severe thunderstorms, featuring large hail, damaging winds, and
flash flooding, are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

An elevated risk of rip currents is likely at the local beaches
through the entire period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely for today.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-201100-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
540 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the Laguna Madre
until 1 PM CDT this afternoon.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters
from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore until 7 AM CDT Thursday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected. Strong to severe
thunderstorms, featuring large hail, damaging winds, and
waterspouts, are possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower
Texas Coast Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely for today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
734 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ248-249-191330-
Jim Hogg TX-Zapata TX-
734 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JIM HOGG...NORTHERN STARR...
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS AND NORTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM
CDT...

At 734 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Guerra, or 8 miles west of Agua Nueva, moving north at
30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hebbronville, Agua Nueva, Las Lomitas, Gruy Stadium, Randado,
Thompsonville, Jim Hogg County Airport, Hebbronville High School,
South Fork Estates and Hebbronville Border Patrol Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

LAT...LON 2734 9855 2734 9852 2727 9852 2726 9853
      2724 9849 2714 9849 2714 9847 2705 9847
      2705 9844 2694 9842 2678 9880 2727 9909
      2727 9880 2735 9880 2736 9863 2734 9862
      2734 9859 2736 9859 2736 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 157DEG 28KT 2690 9875

TOMASELLI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
943 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ251-253>257-351-191530-
Coastal Willacy TX-Inland Willacy TX-Southern Hidalgo TX-
Coastal Kenedy TX-Coastal Cameron TX-Inland Cameron TX-
Inland Kenedy TX-
943 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENEDY...SOUTHEASTERN HIDALGO...
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

At 942 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles south of Malaquite Beach to near Port
Mansfield Airport to near Las Rusias. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Harlingen, Weslaco, San Juan, San Benito, Alamo, Donna, Mercedes,
Raymondville, La Feria and Elsa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury
and significant property damage.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

LAT...LON 2606 9820 2608 9823 2726 9772 2727 9735
      2690 9746 2700 9756 2695 9755 2695 9756
      2684 9736 2644 9732 2648 9725 2648 9724
      2646 9724 2636 9738 2595 9715 2584 9740
TIME...MOT...LOC 1442Z 288DEG 47KT 2724 9738 2652 9748 2603 9780

Farris

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1010 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ253-191600-
Southern Hidalgo TX-
1010 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HIDALGO...SOUTHEASTERN
STARR AND NORTHWESTERN CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

At 1009 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 23 miles southwest of Granjero to 9 miles
southwest of Santa Ana National Wildlife Refuge. Movement was north
at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Edinburg, Mission, Pharr, Weslaco, San Juan, Alamo, Donna, Mercedes,
Hidalgo and Elsa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

LAT...LON 2605 9807 2607 9808 2605 9815 2607 9825
      2610 9829 2612 9827 2612 9828 2610 9830
      2613 9833 2617 9834 2616 9839 2622 9844
      2620 9848 2626 9859 2642 9850 2632 9786
      2606 9788 2607 9803 2604 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1509Z 201DEG 21KT 2590 9857 2594 9823

Farris

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1017 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 AM     FLOOD            3 SW LA FERIA           26.12N 97.85W
05/19/2021                   CAMERON            TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            LOW WATER BRIDGE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
            OBSERVED VIA DRIVETEXAS.ORG.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1023 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     FLOOD            1 NNE PHARR             26.19N 98.19W
05/19/2021                   HIDALGO            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STREET FLOODING OBSERVED IN PHARR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1028 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ254>257-351-191615-
Coastal Willacy TX-Inland Willacy TX-Coastal Kenedy TX-
Coastal Cameron TX-Inland Cameron TX-
1028 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENEDY...CAMERON AND
CENTRAL WILLACY COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1028 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 23 miles northeast of Port Mansfield to 6 miles
northwest of Holly Beach to 7 miles southwest of Villa Nueva
Elementary School. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Harlingen, San Benito, La Feria, Los Fresnos, Santa Rosa, South Padre
Island, Rancho Viejo, Rio Hondo, Palm Valley and Los Indios.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

LAT...LON 2605 9785 2623 9786 2683 9736 2652 9726
      2651 9739 2650 9726 2645 9746 2649 9726
      2636 9738 2639 9734 2637 9735 2639 9732
      2636 9734 2645 9725 2636 9733 2643 9726
      2607 9714 2584 9740
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 307DEG 28KT 2672 9709 2621 9737 2590 9768

Farris