Coastal Flood Advisory 2, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1251 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...KBRO doppler radar shows the heavy convection
continuing to move southeast through Cameron County as of 1245pm
CDT/1745Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain behind the
main squall line, but all convection should slowly end by 20-21z
give/take an hour or two. TAFs will need to be monitored closely
over the next couple of hours as ceilings and visibilities waffle
up and down. Latest surface observations along the coast,
especially at PIL and BRO, show strong northerly winds have
developed behind the convection, with gusts between 35 and 40
knots at times. These winds are expected to decrease over the next
hour or two. Will continue to monitor and amend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...The forthcoming TAFs have been updated to reflect an
earlier onset of squall line passage through the aerodromes today.
Hazardous aviation conditions are anticipated until the squall
line moves east and out of the region later today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021/

SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Convection has begun to
initiate over the neighboring Mexican states of Nuevo Leon and
Coahuila, and it is reflected in the current run of the HRRR
model. This model, as well as others, continue to suggest that a
mesoscale convective cluster will initiate west and north of the
BRO CWFA and then work through Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley this morning and afternoon. With the entire region
still in a Slight Risk of severe weather per the Storm Prediction
Center, will maintain the mention of large hail and damaging
winds for today, but will remove it for tonight, as the
atmosphere will likely be worked over sufficiently to prevent
these threats at that time. One persistent threat for the entire
short term forecast period, however, will be heavy rain, and thus
will maintain the inherited Flash Flood Watch. The Watch may need
to be trimmed back a little for Thursday, with the idea that it
might be able to be ended around sunrise Thursday morning due to
projected lesser rainfall amounts on Thursday. However, will keep
status quo for now and allow successive shifts to weigh any Watch
changes at that time.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): The long term will be
wetter and cooler than average through the period. A mid level
shortwave trough will pinch off from the main flow and hover over
deep South Texas and Northeast Mexico through much of the long term.
This mid level pattern will combine with low to mid level moisture
as a moderate southeast flow persists, keeping rain chances in the
picture through early next week. The increased cloud cover and rain
potential will help moderate temperatures and keep highs a few
degrees below normal. Winds will remain light to moderate out of the
east or southeast through early next week.

MARINE:
Thursday Night through Sunday Night...Moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds and moderate to high wave heights will prevail
through the period. As a result, low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible on the Gulf waters.

Thursday Night through Sunday Night...Moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds and moderate to high wave heights will prevail
through the period. As a result, low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible on the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  69  83  72 /  80  70  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          87  70  86  72 /  80  70  30  20
HARLINGEN            86  68  86  71 /  80  60  30  20
MCALLEN              85  68  88  71 /  80  40  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  68  90  71 /  90  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  72  79  75 /  80  70  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ256-257-
     351.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ248>257-351-
     353.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Aviation...67-Mejia

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
137 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

TXZ248>257-351-353-201845-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
137 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley until 1 PM CDT Thursday.

There is a High Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South Padre
Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

An elevated risk of rip currents is likely at the local beaches
through the entire period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Additional spotter reports, especially for flooding through this
afternoon, are appreciated.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-201845-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
137 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre until 4
PM CDT this afternoon.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters
until 7 AM CDT Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower
Texas Coast Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

53

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
211 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W SAN BENITO          26.14N 97.66W
05/19/2021                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            WATER RISING UP TO DOORSTEPS OF HOMES IN SAN
            BENITO NEAR WILLIAMS RD AND I69E. REPORT
            RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
213 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     FLOOD            2 NNW BROWNSVILLE       25.95N 97.49W
05/19/2021                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            STREETS FLOODED NEAR PAREDES LINE AND RUBEN
            M TORRES BLVD IN BROWNSVILLE. REPORT
            RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
217 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLOOD            1 NNW LA FERIA          26.16N 97.83W
05/19/2021                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING OCCURRING IN MARIPOSA RANCH
            SUBDIVISION IN LA FERIA. REPORT RECEIVED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
222 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E LAGUNA HEIGHTS      26.08N 97.25W
05/19/2021                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            POWER POLES BROKEN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
238 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLOOD            DONNA                   26.17N 98.04W
05/19/2021                   HIDALGO            TX   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING ONGOING IN DONNA.

&&