Small Craft Advisory 448, NWS Juneau, AK

088 
FZAK53 PAJK 302338
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-011745-
Yakutat Bay-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in
the evening. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft. Showers. Slight chance
of thunderstorms late. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. S swell. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 13 ft.
S swell in the evening. Showers.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Rain
showers. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

916 
FZAK53 PAJK 011137
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-020545-
Yakutat Bay-
337 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 11 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell in the evening.
Showers.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. S swell in the morning. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain
showers. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

077 
FZAK53 PAJK 012351
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-021800-
Yakutat Bay-
351 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 13 
ft. S swell in the evening. Showers early in the evening. Showers 
late. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. S swell in the morning. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain
showers. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

033 
FZAK53 PAJK 021141
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-030545-
Yakutat Bay-
341 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the morning, then
diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. S swell in the morning.
Showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then rain showers late. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

620 
FZAK53 PAJK 022333
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-031745-
Yakutat Bay-
333 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming light.
Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell in the evening. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

325 
FZAK53 PAJK 031141
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-040545-
Yakutat Bay-
341 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain showers early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
7 ft. S swell in the evening. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

308 
FZAK53 PAJK 032327
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-041730-
Yakutat Bay-
327 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
7 ft. SW swell in the evening. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
359 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Very active weather over the
next several days for SE Alaska with different features moving
through each period. An elongated area of low pressure over the
eastern gulf has had multiple smaller vortices or areas of low
pressure rotating about it. These have contributed to a band of
showers tracking northward across the region through the day.
Meanwhile, a new surface low center has formed at the base of the
large scale upper level trough well to the south. This low can be
seen with satellite imagery drawing up moisture from the central
Pacific. The low looks to track into the Dixon Entrance region
around midnight and bring more moderate to heavy showers for the
southern panhandle. A shift in the low track slightly east/west
will cause large changes to the wind direction through Clarence
Strait and the surrounding Ketchikan area. At this time, we think
that the place to see the strongest winds from tonight's low is
the Metlakatla area, very similar to last night, where gusts of 40
mph are in the forecast.

On Thursday morning the low will shift NE into central B.C. and
most of the inside waters will have a wind shift from N-NE to
S-SW through the day. A trough of low pressure extending over the
NE gulf from the Dixon Entrance low will have a more organized
band of showers along it all the way up to Yakutat. Expect this
band to track into the outer coast mid-day and inland through the
afternoon. Some potential exists with this band of showers for
some lightning or ice pellets, particularly in the vicinity of
Mt. Fairweather.

**SIGNIFICANT FALL SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY**

An atmospheric river approaches the NE gulf coast Thursday night,
then spreads east over the entire panhandle by early Friday
morning. A new low center will develop and track along the front
into the eastern gulf Friday night and increase rainfall
rates/continue the heavy rain into the weekend. Between Thursday
night and Saturday night 2.5 to 5 inches of rain is expected with
greatest amounts in the Pelican area and in upslope favored areas.

Marine/wind impacts: A major fall storm system is expected to
develop in the north pacific on Friday as energy from both the
northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase together. A
powerful 150+ kt jet streak rounds the base of a large trough over
the gulf of Alaska Friday then pushes northward into SE Alaska. A
near hurricane force low develops in the north pacific in
response to the phasing systems then pushes northward into the
eastern gulf late Friday night. After coordination with the Ocean
Prediction Center and reviewing the latest models and ensembles,
confidence is increasing that much of the eastern gulf will see
high end storm force winds with hurricane force gusts likely.
Models continue to trend eastward with the track of the low
pushing it into Cape Fairweather on Saturday. A further east track
will mean significant impacts possible for the eastern gulf and
through the Inner Channels. Gale force winds are expected through
the Central and Southern Inner Channels Friday into Saturday. An
80 kt low level jet associated with the low combined with low
level instability may lead to a widespread high wind event across
Southeast Alaska. High Wind Watches have been posted from the Icy
Strait Corridor (including Juneau) and southward for Friday
evening through Saturday afternoon. Another significant risk
factor will be a possible wind shift from the SE to the SW as the
front passes through. A wind shift with high winds may cause
additional impacts as weakened trees and power lines may easily
be knocked down. Also cannot rule out the potential for
landslides. during the time of the windshift. This storm system
will be monitored very closely over the next few days.

Confidence is increasing throughout the short term as guidance
comes into better agreement. There is still some uncertainty
regarding the track of the near hurricane force low on Friday;
however guidance is converging on a more eastern track. A blend of
the GFS/EURO was preferred for this forecast package.

.LONG TERM.../ Friday to Wednesday as of 9 pm Tuesday / Friday
and Saturday look to be the most active portion of the next week.
A strongly deepening low with central pressure likely below 960
mb will pull into the gulf and then curve northwest before heading
back towards the Kenai Peninsula by Saturday night. The system
looks to have its main front moving into the panhandle Friday
evening, and a second wrap about the low center to the northeast
gulf coast by early Saturday morning. Model solutions are closing
in on a more central single solution, and as a result need to
adjust the Friday/Saturday forecast a bit more.

Have deepened the low depth into the 950s, and bumped up winds as
well where there is a significant band of 50 to 60 kt over the
outer waters, and 35 to 45 kt gales over a several of the inner
channels. Forecast seas for Friday to Saturday were also increased
significantly. Rainfall for the panhandle for the 48 hour period
also ranging generally between 3 and 8 inches through Saturday
night. QPF totals in the forecast looking to range between 2 and 5
year return intervals over the panhandle. Will be watching this
as rivers have been primed with rain from 2 prior events. Rapidly
improving conditions will occur during the day on Saturday as the
low weakens and pushes into Canada.

If the pattern holds and seas build and move as models are
thinking there could be some very impressive waves moving into
the northeast gulf coast area around Yakutat structures near the
shoreline.

After Saturday Southeast Alaska should expect a continuation of
showers and the improvement starting on Monday into Tuesday. A
ridge is building over the eastern gulf towards the panhandle for
Tuesday while a new deep low continues to develop over the
northern Bering Sea and will be attempting to push the next front
to the western gulf Tuesday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
     for AKZ017-022-023-027-028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

Ferrin/CM/Bezenek

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