Alert archive / Kentucky / Tornado Watches in 2020

Tornado Watch 48

March 12, 202036 counties in Kentucky; 7 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 12, 2020, 5:09 PM CDT for 36 counties in Kentucky; 7 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 12, 2020, 5:09 PM CDT (22:09 UTC)
Expired
Mar 12, 2020, 10:26 PM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 43 counties

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Russell County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Clay County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Macon County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Trousdale County, TN

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 12, 5:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Warren59 min
Mar 12, 5:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGrayson, Hardin, Hart, Larue29 min
Mar 12, 5:34 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKGrayson, Hardin3 hr
Mar 12, 5:41 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKButler, Ohio3 hr
Mar 12, 5:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGreen, Hart, Taylor47 min
Mar 12, 5:59 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKHart3 hr
Mar 12, 6:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Ohio, Warren27 min
Mar 12, 6:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBarren38 min
Mar 12, 6:16 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKGreen, Taylor3 hr
Mar 12, 6:21 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKBarren, Edmonson, Hart, Warren3 hr
Mar 12, 6:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Warren36 min
Mar 12, 6:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Casey, Green, Taylor33 min
Mar 12, 6:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBarren, Edmonson, Warren45 min
Mar 12, 6:52 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKLarue2 hr
Mar 12, 6:59 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKAdair, Casey, Taylor31 min
Mar 12, 7:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Grayson47 min
Mar 12, 7:20 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKAdair, Casey3 hr
Mar 12, 7:23 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKAdair, Cumberland, Green, Metcalfe3 hr
Mar 12, 7:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Cumberland, Metcalfe50 min
Mar 12, 7:48 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKClinton, Russell3 hr
Mar 12, 7:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBarren, Hart27 min
Mar 12, 8:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKClinton, Russell26 min
Mar 12, 9:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLMcCreary, Whitley43 min
Mar 12, 9:29 PM CDTTornado WarningJKLBell, McCreary, Whitley31 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2020-03-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2020-03-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 156 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
662 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
182 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

232 
WWUS20 KWNS 122202
SEL8  
SPC WW 122202
KYZ000-TNZ000-130500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 48
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central Kentucky
  Northern Tennessee

* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight
  CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms including several supercells will continue
to move east-southeastward this evening, particularly in vicinity of
a warm front. This includes the potential for a couple of tornadoes
aside from large hail and damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Bowling
Green KY to 115 miles east of Bowling Green KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 46...WW 47...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28040.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 12, 11:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian and 24 more2 hr
Mar 12, 11:44 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAllen, Ballard, Barren, Breckinridge, Butler, Caldwell and 30 more6 hr
Mar 12, 1:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Crittenden, Livingston, Lyon, McCracken, Union and 1 more2 hr
Mar 12, 2:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Fulton89 min
Mar 12, 3:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Christian, Crittenden, Hopkins, Livingston, Lyon and 2 more85 min
Mar 12, 3:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, McCracken7 hr
Mar 12, 6:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Barren, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Green and 6 more85 min
Mar 12, 5:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDyer, Lake, Obion84 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2020Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2020Every tornado watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.