Alert archive / Kentucky / Tornado Watches in 2020

Tornado Watch 46

March 12, 20205 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 12, 2020, 11:44 AM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 12, 2020, 11:44 AM CDT (16:44 UTC)
Expired
Mar 12, 2020, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 90 counties

Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Allen County, KY, Ballard County, KY, Barren County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Warren County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lake County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Obion County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

23 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 12, 1:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHFranklin, Jefferson, Perry45 min
Mar 12, 1:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHFranklin, Jackson, Perry, Union, Williamson51 min
Mar 12, 1:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHFranklin, Hamilton, Jefferson, White43 min
Mar 12, 2:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHFranklin, Hamilton, Johnson, Pope, Saline, Williamson39 min
Mar 12, 2:42 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHFranklin73 min
Mar 12, 2:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHGallatin, Hardin, Pope, Saline48 min
Mar 12, 3:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHCaldwell, Crittenden, Hopkins, Union, Webster39 min
Mar 12, 4:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler29 min
Mar 12, 4:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHHopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg65 min
Mar 12, 4:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Grayson32 min
Mar 12, 4:33 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Grayson27 min
Mar 12, 4:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBreckinridge, Grayson, Hancock, Hardin, Ohio33 min
Mar 12, 4:58 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKEdmonson, Hart32 min
Mar 12, 4:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Ohio46 min
Mar 12, 5:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHMuhlenberg16 min
Mar 12, 5:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Warren59 min
Mar 12, 5:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGrayson, Hardin, Hart, Larue29 min
Mar 12, 5:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHMuhlenberg29 min
Mar 12, 5:34 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKGrayson, Hardin3 hr
Mar 12, 5:41 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKButler, Ohio3 hr
Mar 12, 5:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGreen, Hart, Taylor47 min
Mar 12, 5:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHStoddard27 min
Mar 12, 5:59 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKHart3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 212 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2020-03-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2020-03-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 156 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
662 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
182 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

455 
WWUS20 KWNS 121641
SEL6  
SPC WW 121641
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-122200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 46
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Illinois
  Southern Indiana
  Western and Central Kentucky
  Southeast Missouri
  Northwest and North Central Tennessee

* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1145 AM
  until 500 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will track across the
watch area this afternoon, with a few supercell storms expected to
develop.  Strengthening winds aloft will pose a risk of a tornadoes,
possibly strong.  Hail and damaging winds are also possible with the
strongest storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Cape
Girardeau MO to 35 miles northeast of Bowling Green KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 12, 9:21 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMadison, Monroe, Saint Clair114 min
Mar 12, 11:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Gallatin, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope and 4 more2 hr
Mar 12, 1:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson and 12 more2 hr
Mar 12, 2:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Pulaski89 min
Mar 12, 3:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Pope85 min
Mar 12, 3:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Jackson, Johnson, Massac, Pulaski, Union7 hr
Mar 12, 5:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge, Bullitt and 30 more5 hr
Mar 12, 6:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Barren, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Green and 6 more85 min
Mar 12, 5:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Dunklin, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Ripley84 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2020Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2020Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2020Every tornado watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.