Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Springfield, MO

574 
WWUS53 KSGF 110515
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1115 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

MOC149-203-110525-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-200111T0545Z/
Shannon MO-Oregon MO-
1115 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SHANNON AND OREGON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for south central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3683 9123 3682 9111 3650 9113
      3650 9167 3707 9166 3742 9137 3741 9118
      3726 9116 3725 9112 3720 9112 3720 9109
      3718 9109 3714 9102 3709 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 218DEG 68KT 3729 9140 3703 9123 

$$

Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Storms expanded and moved northeast into the area over the past
couple of hours. Limited instability (but enough) and backed low
level flow/good low level helicity and vertical shear have allowed
some mini supercells to to develop northwest-southwest of KSGF.

Instability/mlcape will remain 500-1000 j/kg in an area
east/ahead of the convection that is in place now (sw and south
central MO). Expect a broken line of convection to move northeast
into southern MO toward 00z/6pm then shift east and northeast in
areas along and east of hwy 65 and south of I-44. Storm mode looks
to be a mix of mini supercells, and broken lines segments.
Damaging wind/tornado threat will continue for much or our eastern
cwfa through midnight before the activity shifts east of the
area.

Heavy rain is the another concern and not much change is in the
forecast with storm totals of 3-4 inches common which will
produce flooding. No changes to the watch are expected.

Cold air will move southeast into the region late tonight into
Saturday. In general guidance has backed off a little on the snow
but still looking at trace amounts to around three inches with
highest amounts in our northwest counties. As the cold air moves
in, the shallow nature of the initial push should result in a
changeover to freezing rain/drizzle then sleet late tonight, then
finally snow Saturday as precip wraps around the exiting upper
low. Still have an ice accumulation of around a tenth of an inch
for the western cwfa. No changes planned to winter products.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Saturday night-Sunday: A sfc ridge will move quickly through
Saturday night with temperatures falling into the teens-20s.
Guidance might be a little aggressive in the warmup on Sunday,
but south winds will kick in with a moderating temperature trend.

Monday-Friday: Mild weather is expected Monday-Tuesday with
limited rain/precip potential. A sfc low low is expected to pass
through the region Wednesday (decent agreement with global
models). Some limited light rain potential is there but there
won't be a ton of moisture to work with. Cold air will nose it's
way south briefly in the wake of the low. There is some potential
for another mid latitude system late in the week with a quick
zonal upper air pattern in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

A broad area of showers and storms will impact the region through
this evening in into the overnight hours. Rain is expected to be
heavy at time with impacts to visibilities likely. Ceilings and
visibilities will be mainly IFR with occasional period of MVFR.
This MVFR breaks will be very brief.

A brief period of little to no precipitation may occur just behind
a cold front that will move through the area overnight. Surface
winds will shift out of the north behind the front. B

Around sunrise, precipitation will wrap back into the region with
freezing rain changing to snow moving across the region from west
to east. This will continue MVFR to IFR flight conditions.
Occasional period of LIFR will be possible with heavier snow
bands.

Improving flight conditions will occur late Saturday into Sunday
morning with clearing skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MOZ057-058-069>071-079>083-090>096-
     101>104.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     MOZ055-056-066>068-077-078-088-089.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
756 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-120200-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
756 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive cold risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Significant ice accumulation risk.
  Limited snow and sleet risk.

DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
the region tonight. Additional heavy rain is expected to occur
overnight. Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to range
from 2.5 to 4 inches. Localized amounts of around 5 to 6 inches
remain possible where thunderstorms persist for longer periods.
Widespread rainfall of this magnitude will likely cause the
flooding of numerous rivers, creeks, and low water crossings.

Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly south and
east of a Branson to Hartville to Salem line. Damaging winds,
tornadoes, and large hail will all be possible with these storms.

As colder air moves into the area, rain will transition to a
wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow late tonight over
northwest sections of the outlook area. Greatest accumulations
through tonight will occur from southeast Kansas into central
Missouri. Wind chills will also drop into the teens in this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A wintry mix or freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected across
much of the area Saturday morning, transitioning to snow through
the day. The greatest accumulations will be over the northwest
portion of the outlook area from southeast Kansas into central
Missouri, with the lowest accumulations over south-central
Missouri. Wind chills will fall into the teens and single digits
through the day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed for areas east and south of a
Branson to Hartville to Salem line through midnight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
935 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW AVA               36.97N 92.73W
01/10/2020                   DOUGLAS            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING AT COWSKIN CREEK
            RESULTING IN AN IMPASSABLE ROADWAY.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1006 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE KIRBYVILLE        36.58N 93.14W
01/10/2020                   TANEY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE AT STATE HIGHWAY J AT TRIGGER
            CREEK.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1025 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STRAFFORD               37.27N 93.12W
01/10/2020                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO BUSINESS AND ROOFS ON MULTIPLE
            HOMES IN A PATH THROUGH STRAFFORD. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1033 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSW RICHLAND          37.80N 92.43W
01/10/2020                   LACLEDE            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE IN LACLEDE COUNTY ON HIGHWAY FF
            SOUTH OF BRACKETT LN AT BEAR CREEK. A
            VEHICLE WAS SWEPT OFF THE ROAD. THE DRIVER
            MANAGED TO ESCAPE BEFORE HIS VEHICLE WASHED
            DOWNSTREAM. THE WATER GAUGE SHOWED WATER WAS
            TWO FEET HIGH. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1035 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW CASSVILLE          36.64N 93.88W
01/10/2020                   BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1036 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             3 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.22N 93.24W
01/10/2020  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

MB