Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2020

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Springfield, MO

January 10, 2020Howell County, Ozark County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jan 10, 2020, 10:15 PM CST for Howell County, Ozark County, Missouri. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 10, 2020, 10:15 PM CST (04:15 UTC)
Expired: Jan 10, 2020, 11:00 PM CST
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Howell County, MO, Ozark County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jan 10, 5:34 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	11 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 322 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 517 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 257 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 325 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 2.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

616 
WUUS53 KSGF 110415
SVRSGF
MOC091-153-110500-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0019.200111T0415Z-200111T0500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1015 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Ozark County in southwestern Missouri...
  Southern Howell County in south central Missouri...

* Until 1100 PM CST.

* At 1015 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Bakersfield to near Rodney to Gorby, moving
  northeast at 75 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Norfork Lake...                   Bakersfield...
  Brandsville...                    Lanton...
  Moody...                          

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for south central
and southwestern Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 9212 3654 9212 3670 9168 3650 9168
      3650 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 215DEG 64KT 3650 9221 3630 9210 3611 9208 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cramer

1 follow-up statement

327 
WWUS53 KSGF 110456
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1056 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

MOC091-153-110506-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200111T0500Z/
Ozark MO-Howell MO-
1056 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OZARK AND
SOUTHERN HOWELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CST...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for south central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3658 9212 3654 9212 3670 9168 3650 9168
      3650 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 270DEG 64KT 3706 9172 3686 9161 3667 9159 

$$

Cramer

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jan 10, 5:58 PM CST, 4 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 10, 5:58 PM CST, 4 hours 17 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Storms expanded and moved northeast into the area over the past
couple of hours. Limited instability (but enough) and backed low
level flow/good low level helicity and vertical shear have allowed
some mini supercells to to develop northwest-southwest of KSGF.

Instability/mlcape will remain 500-1000 j/kg in an area
east/ahead of the convection that is in place now (sw and south
central MO). Expect a broken line of convection to move northeast
into southern MO toward 00z/6pm then shift east and northeast in
areas along and east of hwy 65 and south of I-44. Storm mode looks
to be a mix of mini supercells, and broken lines segments.
Damaging wind/tornado threat will continue for much or our eastern
cwfa through midnight before the activity shifts east of the
area.

Heavy rain is the another concern and not much change is in the
forecast with storm totals of 3-4 inches common which will
produce flooding. No changes to the watch are expected.

Cold air will move southeast into the region late tonight into
Saturday. In general guidance has backed off a little on the snow
but still looking at trace amounts to around three inches with
highest amounts in our northwest counties. As the cold air moves
in, the shallow nature of the initial push should result in a
changeover to freezing rain/drizzle then sleet late tonight, then
finally snow Saturday as precip wraps around the exiting upper
low. Still have an ice accumulation of around a tenth of an inch
for the western cwfa. No changes planned to winter products.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Saturday night-Sunday: A sfc ridge will move quickly through
Saturday night with temperatures falling into the teens-20s.
Guidance might be a little aggressive in the warmup on Sunday,
but south winds will kick in with a moderating temperature trend.

Monday-Friday: Mild weather is expected Monday-Tuesday with
limited rain/precip potential. A sfc low low is expected to pass
through the region Wednesday (decent agreement with global
models). Some limited light rain potential is there but there
won't be a ton of moisture to work with. Cold air will nose it's
way south briefly in the wake of the low. There is some potential
for another mid latitude system late in the week with a quick
zonal upper air pattern in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

A broad area of showers and storms will impact the region through
this evening in into the overnight hours. Rain is expected to be
heavy at time with impacts to visibilities likely. Ceilings and
visibilities will be mainly IFR with occasional period of MVFR.
This MVFR breaks will be very brief.

A brief period of little to no precipitation may occur just behind
a cold front that will move through the area overnight. Surface
winds will shift out of the north behind the front. B

Around sunrise, precipitation will wrap back into the region with
freezing rain changing to snow moving across the region from west
to east. This will continue MVFR to IFR flight conditions.
Occasional period of LIFR will be possible with heavier snow
bands.

Improving flight conditions will occur late Saturday into Sunday
morning with clearing skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MOZ057-058-069>071-079>083-090>096-
     101>104.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     MOZ055-056-066>068-077-078-088-089.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 10, 7:56 PM CST, 2 hours 19 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
756 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-120200-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
756 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive cold risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Significant ice accumulation risk.
  Limited snow and sleet risk.

DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
the region tonight. Additional heavy rain is expected to occur
overnight. Storm total rainfall amounts are expected to range
from 2.5 to 4 inches. Localized amounts of around 5 to 6 inches
remain possible where thunderstorms persist for longer periods.
Widespread rainfall of this magnitude will likely cause the
flooding of numerous rivers, creeks, and low water crossings.

Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly south and
east of a Branson to Hartville to Salem line. Damaging winds,
tornadoes, and large hail will all be possible with these storms.

As colder air moves into the area, rain will transition to a
wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow late tonight over
northwest sections of the outlook area. Greatest accumulations
through tonight will occur from southeast Kansas into central
Missouri. Wind chills will also drop into the teens in this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A wintry mix or freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected across
much of the area Saturday morning, transitioning to snow through
the day. The greatest accumulations will be over the northwest
portion of the outlook area from southeast Kansas into central
Missouri, with the lowest accumulations over south-central
Missouri. Wind chills will fall into the teens and single digits
through the day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed for areas east and south of a
Branson to Hartville to Salem line through midnight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 10, 8:40 PM CST, 1 hour 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
840 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW PRESTON           37.92N 93.22W
01/10/2020                   HICKORY            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY D IS CLOSED SOUTH OF PRESTON.

&&

MB

Local storm report, Jan 10, 8:54 PM CST, 1 hour 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
854 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW NEOSHO            36.87N 94.38W
01/10/2020                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING RESULTING IN A
            CLOSURE OF MCCORD AND SPRING STREETS IN
            NEOSHO, MISSOURI.

&&

KP

Local storm report, Jan 10, 9:13 PM CST, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
913 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E ELKLAND             37.44N 92.98W
01/10/2020                   WEBSTER            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY W IS CLOSED AT GIVINS BRANCH
            CREEK.

&&

MB

Local storm report, Jan 10, 9:14 PM CST, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
914 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW TUNAS              37.90N 93.10W
01/10/2020                   DALLAS             MO   PUBLIC

            STATE HIGHWAY BB IS CLOSED AT CAHOOCHIE
            CREEK.

&&

MB

Local storm report, Jan 10, 9:35 PM CST, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
935 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW AVA               36.97N 92.73W
01/10/2020                   DOUGLAS            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING AT COWSKIN CREEK
            RESULTING IN AN IMPASSABLE ROADWAY.

&&

KP

Local storm report, Jan 10, 10:06 PM CST, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1006 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE KIRBYVILLE        36.58N 93.14W
01/10/2020                   TANEY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE AT STATE HIGHWAY J AT TRIGGER
            CREEK.

&&

MB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 10, 6:04 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian, Douglas, Ozark, Taney, Webster, Wright	41 min
Jan 10, 6:29 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Dallas, Laclede, Webster, Wright	46 min
Jan 10, 6:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas, Wright	20 min
Jan 10, 6:51 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Camden, Christian, Douglas, Laclede, Ozark, Pulaski and 4 more	6 hr
Jan 10, 6:58 PM CST	Areal Flood Warning	SGF	Barton, Cedar, Dade, Jasper, Newton, St. Clair and 1 more	12 hr
Jan 10, 7:01 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Maries, Miller, Phelps, Pulaski	44 min
Jan 10, 7:08 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Laclede, Pulaski, Texas, Wright	37 min
Jan 10, 9:38 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Ozark	52 min
Jan 10, 10:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas, Howell	54 min
Jan 10, 10:17 PM CST	Tornado Warning	SGF	Howell, Ozark	16 min
Jan 10, 10:24 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Douglas, Howell, Oregon, Shannon, Texas	12 hr
Jan 10, 10:38 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Oregon, Shannon	37 min
Jan 10, 10:54 PM CST	Areal Flood Warning	SGF	Dent, Maries, Miller, Phelps, Pulaski	12 hr
Jan 11, 1:50 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Christian, Douglas, Laclede, Ozark, Pulaski, Taney and 3 more	9 hr
Jan 11, 8:32 AM CST	Areal Flood Warning	SGF	Barry, Barton, Benton, Camden, Cedar, Dade and 11 more	24 hr
Jan 11, 10:07 AM CST	Areal Flood Warning	SGF	Barry, Christian, Douglas, Greene, Howell, Lawrence and 8 more	24 hr
Jan 11, 10:14 AM CST	Areal Flood Warning	SGF	Camden, Dallas, Dent, Laclede, Maries, Miller and 4 more	24 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2020 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.