Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Storms expanded and moved northeast into the area over the past
couple of hours. Limited instability (but enough) and backed low
level flow/good low level helicity and vertical shear have allowed
some mini supercells to to develop northwest-southwest of KSGF.

Instability/mlcape will remain 500-1000 j/kg in an area
east/ahead of the convection that is in place now (sw and south
central MO). Expect a broken line of convection to move northeast
into southern MO toward 00z/6pm then shift east and northeast in
areas along and east of hwy 65 and south of I-44. Storm mode looks
to be a mix of mini supercells, and broken lines segments.
Damaging wind/tornado threat will continue for much or our eastern
cwfa through midnight before the activity shifts east of the
area.

Heavy rain is the another concern and not much change is in the
forecast with storm totals of 3-4 inches common which will
produce flooding. No changes to the watch are expected.

Cold air will move southeast into the region late tonight into
Saturday. In general guidance has backed off a little on the snow
but still looking at trace amounts to around three inches with
highest amounts in our northwest counties. As the cold air moves
in, the shallow nature of the initial push should result in a
changeover to freezing rain/drizzle then sleet late tonight, then
finally snow Saturday as precip wraps around the exiting upper
low. Still have an ice accumulation of around a tenth of an inch
for the western cwfa. No changes planned to winter products.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Saturday night-Sunday: A sfc ridge will move quickly through
Saturday night with temperatures falling into the teens-20s.
Guidance might be a little aggressive in the warmup on Sunday,
but south winds will kick in with a moderating temperature trend.

Monday-Friday: Mild weather is expected Monday-Tuesday with
limited rain/precip potential. A sfc low low is expected to pass
through the region Wednesday (decent agreement with global
models). Some limited light rain potential is there but there
won't be a ton of moisture to work with. Cold air will nose it's
way south briefly in the wake of the low. There is some potential
for another mid latitude system late in the week with a quick
zonal upper air pattern in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

A broad area of showers and storms will impact the region through
this evening in into the overnight hours. Rain is expected to be
heavy at time with impacts to visibilities likely. Ceilings and
visibilities will be mainly IFR with occasional period of MVFR.
This MVFR breaks will be very brief.

A brief period of little to no precipitation may occur just behind
a cold front that will move through the area overnight. Surface
winds will shift out of the north behind the front. B

Around sunrise, precipitation will wrap back into the region with
freezing rain changing to snow moving across the region from west
to east. This will continue MVFR to IFR flight conditions.
Occasional period of LIFR will be possible with heavier snow
bands.

Improving flight conditions will occur late Saturday into Sunday
morning with clearing skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MOZ057-058-069>071-079>083-090>096-
     101>104.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     MOZ055-056-066>068-077-078-088-089.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
611 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-120015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
611 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive cold risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated ice accumulation risk.
  Limited snow and sleet risk.

DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
the region through this evening. Additional heavy rain is
expected to occur into tonight. Storm total rainfall amounts are
expected to range from 2.5 to 4 inches. Localized amounts of
around 5 to 6 inches remain possible where thunderstorms persist
for longer periods. Widespread rainfall of this magnitude will
likely cause the flooding of numerous rivers, creeks, and low
water crossings.

Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly east of
Highway 65 and along and south of Interstate 44. Damaging winds,
tornadoes, and large hail will all be possible with these storms.

As colder air moves into the area, rain will transition to a
wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow late tonight over
northwest sections of the outlook area. Greatest accumulations
through tonight will occur from southeast Kansas into central
Missouri. Wind chills will also drop into the teens in this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A wintry mix or freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected across
much of the area Saturday morning, transitioning to snow through
the day. The greatest accumulations will be over the northwest
portion of the outlook area from southeast Kansas into central
Missouri, with the lowest accumulations over south-central
Missouri. Wind chills will fall into the teens and single digits
through the day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed tonight for the eastern Ozarks.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             HURLEY                  36.93N 93.50W
01/10/2020  NAN INCH         STONE              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN HURLEY.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             3 NNE BATTLEFIELD       37.16N 93.34W
01/10/2020  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR GOLDEN AVE
            AND SCENIC AVE.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             4 W SPRINGFIELD         37.21N 93.36W
01/10/2020  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             4 NNE SPRINGFIELD       37.24N 93.26W
01/10/2020  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER HAIL ON GLENSTONE AVENUE NEAR I-44
            IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             3 NNE SPRINGFIELD       37.24N 93.26W
01/10/2020  E1.25 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW BUFFALO           37.67N 93.10W
01/10/2020                   DALLAS             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WATER OVER 65 JUST
            SOUTH OF 73 JUNCTION NEAR BUFFALO, MO.

&&

KP