Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1204 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Storms expanded and moved northeast into the area over the past
couple of hours. Limited instability (but enough) and backed low
level flow/good low level helicity and vertical shear have allowed
some mini supercells to to develop northwest-southwest of KSGF.

Instability/mlcape will remain 500-1000 j/kg in an area
east/ahead of the convection that is in place now (sw and south
central MO). Expect a broken line of convection to move northeast
into southern MO toward 00z/6pm then shift east and northeast in
areas along and east of hwy 65 and south of I-44. Storm mode looks
to be a mix of mini supercells, and broken lines segments.
Damaging wind/tornado threat will continue for much or our eastern
cwfa through midnight before the activity shifts east of the
area.

Heavy rain is the another concern and not much change is in the
forecast with storm totals of 3-4 inches common which will
produce flooding. No changes to the watch are expected.

Cold air will move southeast into the region late tonight into
Saturday. In general guidance has backed off a little on the snow
but still looking at trace amounts to around three inches with
highest amounts in our northwest counties. As the cold air moves
in, the shallow nature of the initial push should result in a
changeover to freezing rain/drizzle then sleet late tonight, then
finally snow Saturday as precip wraps around the exiting upper
low. Still have an ice accumulation of around a tenth of an inch
for the western cwfa. No changes planned to winter products.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Saturday night-Sunday: A sfc ridge will move quickly through
Saturday night with temperatures falling into the teens-20s.
Guidance might be a little aggressive in the warmup on Sunday,
but south winds will kick in with a moderating temperature trend.

Monday-Friday: Mild weather is expected Monday-Tuesday with
limited rain/precip potential. A sfc low low is expected to pass
through the region Wednesday (decent agreement with global
models). Some limited light rain potential is there but there
won't be a ton of moisture to work with. Cold air will nose it's
way south briefly in the wake of the low. There is some potential
for another mid latitude system late in the week with a quick
zonal upper air pattern in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Cloud cover will continue to be low with IFR ceilings expected
through Saturday night. There should be a brief period where
precipitation ends or is very light for a few hours with
increasing chances for freezing rainfall changing to snow around
or just before sunrise.

Clearing conditions will finally spread across the region early
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for
     MOZ057-058-069>071-079>083-090>096-101>104.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     MOZ055-056-066>068-077-078-088-089.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1132 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-120545-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1132 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated ice accumulation risk.
  Elevated snow risk.

DISCUSSION...

Widespread flooding of low water crossings and low lying roads is
ongoing across extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.
Several water rescues have occurred while streams and rivers
continue to rise. Flooding will persist well into Saturday as non
severe thunderstorms continue into the early Saturday morning
hours.

As colder air moves into the area, rain will transition to a
wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow late tonight over
northwest sections of the outlook area. Greatest accumulations
through tonight will occur from southeast Kansas into central
Missouri. Wind chills will also drop into the teens in this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A wintry mix or freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected across
much of the area Saturday morning, transitioning to snow through
the day. The greatest accumulations will be over the northwest
portion of the outlook area from southeast Kansas into central
Missouri, with the lowest accumulations over south-central
Missouri. Wind chills will fall into the teens and single digits
through the day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation is not needed through the rest of tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
129 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 37.33N 91.95W
01/11/2020                   TEXAS              MO   PUBLIC

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING OF
            BRUSHY CREEK AT WALNUT STREET IN HOUSTON.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
132 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE PLEASANT HOPE     37.45N 93.24W
01/11/2020                   POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING OF
            POMME DE TERRE RIVER AT HIGHWAY 215.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
135 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE HURLEY            36.91N 93.49W
01/11/2020                   STONE              MO   PUBLIC

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING OF
            SPRING CREEK AT HIGHWAY CC SOUTH OF HURLEY.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
136 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MCDOWELL                36.82N 93.79W
01/11/2020                   BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING OF
            FLAT CREEK AT HIGHWAY C.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WSW RIDGLEY           36.68N 94.09W
01/11/2020                   MCDONALD           MO   PUBLIC

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING OF
            MIKES CREEK AT HIGHWAY U.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
140 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     FLASH FLOOD      POWELL                  36.62N 94.18W
01/11/2020                   MCDONALD           MO   PUBLIC

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING OF
            BIG SUGAR CREEK AT HIGHWAY E.

&&

DC