River Flood Warning 10, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
529 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Not much change from the previous forecast through tonight.

Still looking at flooding potential and will keep the Flash Flood
Watch in place. Additional rainfall with this event is expected
to be 2-4 inches, on top of what we have already observed. There
also remains the potential for localized amounts well in excess of
that due to training convection. Given the state of vegetation in
the winter, it will not take as much rain to lead to flooding. On
top of flash flooding, river flooding is also expected and
headlines are already in effect for several locations.

Severe thunderstorms are still a concern and the SPC slight risk
continues for today into tonight. Mainly focused on this
afternoon into early tonight when the instability will be
greatest, but still meager. Low level vertical wind shear will be
more than sufficient for severe weather, so it will come down to
that CAPE/shear balance along the front as it progresses eastward.
Damaging winds are the primary threat, with a lesser threat of an
isolated tornado threat and large hail. There is potential we
could see some discrete surfaced based cells over the far SW CWA
this afternoon and evening, but will need to further assess the
environment as that draws closer.

Winter weather will wrap this event up. Much of the winter weather
impacts will occur in the long term (see below), but certainly
start up in the NW/W CWA later this evening and tonight. A bigger
change this forecast period was to bring colder surface air in
faster as new models runs agree well on faster timing. This leads
to sleet and freezing rain starting earlier and lasting longer
before the transition to snow. Looking at potential for roughly
0.1-0.2 inches of sleet and about the same amount of freezing
rain over the NW CWA (where the Winter Storm Warning is in effect)
from late this evening into tonight. At the same time, surface
temperatures quickly drop off, potentially leading to a flash
freeze. Impacts continue into Saturday...

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

As the cold near surface layer continues to moves E through the
area Saturday, sleet and freezing rain will progress with it. The
eastern portions of the area will probably not see significant
winter impacts until late morning or afternoon and amounts will be
lighter there due to the later arrival of that cold air.
Precipitation type will change to snow from NW to SE through the
day as cold air deepens. Areas in the Winter Storm Warning are
expected to receive 2-4" of storm total snow/sleet and 0.10-0.20
inches of ice accumulation. Generally along the I-44 corridor,
expect around an inch of snow/sleet and around 0.10 inches of ice
accumulation. Lesser amounts are expected SE of I-44, with little
to no accumulation expected over the far SE CWA (where no winter
headlines are in effect).

Could see another active period mid-late next week, but quiet
otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into tonight, with periods
of better and worse conditions due to convective nature of the
precipitation. Moisture continues to stream into the area, which
will lead to lowering ceilings through the TAF period. Later
tonight into Saturday morning, precipitation will turn over to a
wintry mix as much cold air moves in from west to east. A flash
freezes is possible due to quickly falling temperatures into the
20s.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MOZ057-058-069>071-079>083-090>096-
     101>104.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MOZ055-056-066>068-077-078-088-089.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     Saturday night for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

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