Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
148 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

Thunderstorms continue to evolve through the afternoon hours as
the upper low makes its final dig across our area, as well as a
surface boundary/dryline making its eastward push. With the moist
air already in place, mid-level lapse rates will steepen mid-level
temperature lapse rates increasing the MUCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg
across much of the southern half of our forecast area.
Expecting last round of supercells to begin developing in this
highly unstable and sheared environment, with very large hail
possible. DCAPE values will also be sufficient for severe wind
gusts from these storms, while the shear could support a few
tornados from these storms mainly across southeast Oklahoma.
Expecting the severe storms to have moved into southeast Oklahoma
by the late evening hours. Unfortunately the CAMs still don't seem
to have a good handle with these storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

Models show that a disturbance/shortwave will move across the
central/southern Plains bringing a chance for showers and storms
Thursday night into Friday. Models also show a sfc low and cold
front moving across the area during this time. Rain chances will end
Fri afternoon/evening as the upper system moves east of the area.

Models show generally NW upper flow over the weekend and through
next week, especially next week as the upper ridge builds over the
western U.S. Disturbances moving through this flow could bring a
chance for rain at times. Right now, it looks like showers and
storms will be possible early next week with the most potential
Tuesday as a cold front moves across the fa.

Generally, near but below average temperatures are expected Friday
and over the weekend. Above average temperatures are then expected
much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

Thunderstorm system coming through will maintain low ceilings
across much of our terminals at least through 00Z, maintaining
mostly MVFR to brief periods of IFR conditions and lowered
visibilities. Expecting conditions to improve to VFR conditions
after 00Z as ceiling lift and the storm system pushes off to
eastern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  79  56  70 /  30   0  30  40
Hobart OK         52  81  54  73 /  10   0  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  55  83  59  76 /  10   0  10  10
Gage OK           47  81  50  72 /  10   0  30  30
Ponca City OK     53  76  54  69 /  50   0  40  60
Durant OK         57  79  57  77 /  70   0  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     020.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...68

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
459 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
459 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Early this morning, strong to severe thunderstorms with a threat
of large hail up to golf ball size will occur in northwest
Oklahoma. Additional storm development along with a greater threat
for storms to be severe is expected by late morning or midday
further south into portions of central and southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas.

The most intense storms of the day are expected from midday
through the afternoon across south-central and southeast Oklahoma,
including Ardmore, Ada, Durant, Shawnee and surrounding areas.
Across this area, large hail up to baseball size and damaging
winds could accompany the storms and a few tornadoes are
possible. Severe storms will move out of the area by early
evening.

Storm movement today is expected to be northeastward at 30 to 40
mph.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Localized flooding is possible in areas where multiple storms
occur. This is most likely across northern Oklahoma through the
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday. The
chance of severe storms is low.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
330 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

OKZ041-046-222100-
Carter OK-Murray OK-
330 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Carter and southwestern
Murray Counties Until 400 PM CDT...

AT 328 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Graham, moving
northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3433 9751 3451 9717 3451 9714 3452 9715
      3454 9711 3427 9696 3423 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 241DEG 35KT 3431 9741

..speg.