Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
634 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

Satellite imagery is beginning to show signs of lift now increasing
ahead of an initial mid level shortwave trough that will move out of
the TX panhandle late this afternoon through tonight. Convective
initiation should occur somewhere within the next hour or two near
NW OK and the northern TX panhandle. A few storms may also try to
develop on the southern flank of the mid level moisture moisture
plume extending from NW OK into ESE OK into this evening. Some
cumulus are now evident in vis imagery within this plume. The most
likely scenario still appears to be a small cluster of storms coming
off the high plains and tracking eastward across northern OK, with 1-
2 discrete elevated supercells south of it moving into portions of
central OK late tonight. Steep lapse rates within the hail growth
zone could support around a 3-6 hour window of very large hail
within the supercells.

As the first, smaller cluster of storms moves out of our area and
dissipates to the east late tonight/early Wed AM, the main mid level
vort max will begin to move in from the west. Therefore, expect more
widespread convection to begin around 12-15Z Wed especially along
and north of I-40 as mid to upper ascent overspreads the region.
These elevated storms will still have the potential to produce large
hail up to the size of golf balls or larger near and just after
sunrise. At the surface, a surface low will near the I-35 corridor
around 18-21Z Wed, with an associated dryline and Pacific front.
Instability should have the chance to ramp up ahead of these
features early tomorrow afternoon within the warm sector over the
SE 1/4 of OK. Surface based supercells will be possible within the
aforementioned area Wed afternoon, with all severe weather threats
possible into early Wed evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

Showers and thunderstorms and the potential for severe storms are
expected to end Wednesday evening. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will then be possible Thursday night into Friday as a
shortwave moves across the central/southern Plains and a cold front
moves across the area.

Models show NW flow will develop aloft over the region next week.
Models also show another front moving across the area early next
week, although there are some differences in timing. Some showers
and thunderstorms could be possible with this boundary.

Temperatures are expected to remain generally below but near the
average mark into this weekend, with the coolest day expected to be
Friday. Warmer temperatures, above average, will then be possible
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected. A few models show that IFR
ceilings could be possible at a few locations Wednesday morning.
Thunderstorms will be possible off and on later this evening
through Wednesday afternoon. Variable gusty winds and hail could
be possible near/with some of the storms. A front will move across
portions of the area Wednesday causing winds to shift towards the
N and NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  69  53  78 /  80  80  20   0
Hobart OK         61  73  51  81 /  50  50  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  81  54  82 /  40  50   0   0
Gage OK           54  67  47  81 /  90  80   0   0
Ponca City OK     59  65  52  77 /  90  90  30   0
Durant OK         61  75  56  79 /  30  90  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
101 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221800-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
101 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible later today and
tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
across northwest Oklahoma. Meanwhile, additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and
move eastward into the area by early evening. Thunderstorm
coverage is then expected to increase later this evening and
overnight, especially across northern and parts of central
Oklahoma. Large hail up to the size of baseballs will be the main
concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the day
Wednesday. Some strong to severe thunderstorms, primarily with a
large hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind threat,
could occur during the morning hours across any portion of the
area.

By Wednesday afternoon, the severe storm threat will continue to
progress eastward but is not expected to exit the area until
evening. Storm intensity could be higher during the afternoon and
evening hours, especially near and east of I-35 and south of I-44.
The primary threats during the afternoon will continue to be
large hail up to the size of baseballs and damaging winds.
However, there is also a potential for some tornadoes, especially
in areas southeast of a Seminole and Pauls Valley, to Marietta
Oklahoma line. There are some uncertainties with the afternoon
and evening activity due to effects from the storms later tonight
into Wednesday morning so check for the latest information.

Thunderstorms will also be possible Thursday night into Friday.
The chance of severe weather with this activity looks to be low.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
648 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

OKZ009-014-220015-
Roger Mills OK-Ellis OK-
648 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Roger Mills and
southwestern Ellis Counties Until 715 PM CDT...

AT 646 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Canadian,
Texas moving east at 30 MPH. Severe Thunderstorm warnings are likely
this evening.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of ping pong balls...
Wind gusts to 60 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Reydon and Durham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the situation closely. Be ready to act quickly if a warning
is issued or if storms threaten you.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 9999 3594 9982 3557 9980 3562 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 270DEG 25KT 3586 10039

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
709 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

OKZ016-022-220045-
Washita OK-Custer OK-
709 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Washita and south
central Custer Counties Until 745 PM CDT...

AT 707 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dill City,
moving northeast at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Cordell, Burns Flat, Dill City, Corn and Bessie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 9912 3535 9922 3557 9895 3531 9872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 239DEG 10KT 3532 9908

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