Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
104 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

Satellite imagery is beginning to show signs of lift now increasing
ahead of an initial mid level shortwave trough that will move out of
the TX panhandle late this afternoon through tonight. Convective
initiation should occur somewhere within the next hour or two near
NW OK and the northern TX panhandle. A few storms may also try to
develop on the southern flank of the mid level moisture moisture
plume extending from NW OK into ESE OK into this evening. Some
cumulus are now evident in vis imagery within this plume. The most
likely scenario still appears to be a small cluster of storms coming
off the high plains and tracking eastward across northern OK, with 1-
2 discrete elevated supercells south of it moving into portions of
central OK late tonight. Steep lapse rates within the hail growth
zone could support around a 3-6 hour window of very large hail
within the supercells.

As the first, smaller cluster of storms moves out of our area and
dissipates to the east late tonight/early Wed AM, the main mid level
vort max will begin to move in from the west. Therefore, expect more
widespread convection to begin around 12-15Z Wed especially along
and north of I-40 as mid to upper ascent overspreads the region.
These elevated storms will still have the potential to produce large
hail up to the size of golf balls or larger near and just after
sunrise. At the surface, a surface low will near the I-35 corridor
around 18-21Z Wed, with an associated dryline and Pacific front.
Instability should have the chance to ramp up ahead of these
features early tomorrow afternoon within the warm sector over the
SE 1/4 of OK. Surface based supercells will be possible within the
aforementioned area Wed afternoon, with all severe weather threats
possible into early Wed evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

Showers and thunderstorms and the potential for severe storms are
expected to end Wednesday evening. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will then be possible Thursday night into Friday as a
shortwave moves across the central/southern Plains and a cold front
moves across the area.

Models show NW flow will develop aloft over the region next week.
Models also show another front moving across the area early next
week, although there are some differences in timing. Some showers
and thunderstorms could be possible with this boundary.

Temperatures are expected to remain generally below but near the
average mark into this weekend, with the coolest day expected to be
Friday. Warmer temperatures, above average, will then be possible
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

Timing of thunderstorms and association impacts to TAF sites is a
bit uncertain and so our time windows for VCTS and prevailing TSRA
are broad. Aside from ongoing thunderstorm cluster in south-
central Oklahoma and weaker storms further north to just east of
OKC metro, coverage should be limited the next few hours. As large
scale ascent increases, storm coverage will increase across much
of the area. One wave will develop in the predawn areas and expand
and move east through midday impacting several of the TAF sites.
Additional showers and storms are possible within a band behind
the departing system across western Oklahoma. Periods of MVFR
stratus in moist low level flow regime will continue through much
of the morning at least.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  53  78  56 /  90  20   0  30
Hobart OK         74  51  81  54 /  80   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  82  54  82  59 /  70   0   0  10
Gage OK           67  47  81  50 /  90   0   0  40
Ponca City OK     67  52  77  54 / 100  60   0  50
Durant OK         76  56  79  57 /  90  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...12

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 AM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HAIL             7 N RAVIA               34.34N 96.76W
04/22/2020  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSTON           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 AM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HAIL             DUNCAN                  34.50N 97.96W
04/22/2020  E1.75 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA TWITTER

&&

SC

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