Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Visible imagery shows clearing skies across the western and
southern portion of the area in the wake of the convectively
enhanced shortwave trough moving into northwest Wisconsin.
Convection continues to develop with that feature, but will be out
of the area before the start of the forecast period. However, the
cold frontal boundary remains to our northwest, and the mid/upper
shortwave trough helping to push that through the region won't
arrive until tonight. Widespread convection is ongoing in
association with these features, but it may have difficulty
persisting too far into our area tonight. The guidance is mixed on
how well convection will survive/develop as the system moves
through tonight. We still have plenty of elevated CAPE in place
(MUCAPE values AOA 2500 J/Kg across much of the area), but things
are capped with respect to activity that would be rooted in the
boundary layer and MLCAPE across the northwest forecast area is
AOB 1000 J/Kg. This may recover a bit, and should the activity to
the northwest grow upscale sufficiently it may not matter.
However, we're seeing some height rises in the wake of the MCV,
and we also have some low-level ridging and lack of convergence
progged ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through the
area. Kept chance PoPs given the uncertainty, but wouldn't be
surprised if most of the activity stays to our north.

Any lingering precipitation should quickly exit the area Monday
morning, with high pressure building in from the west through the
day. Ridging will remain in place through Monday night, with
seasonably dry weather across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

The upper trough over the region will shift northeast by the
middle of the week, and large scale pattern looks to evolve toward
western troughing/eastern ridging by the end of the week.
Return flow looks to setup across the region for the latter part
of the week, increasing precipitation chances for us from Thursday
into the weekend. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
good agreement on this overall large scale pattern, but there is
understandably still plenty of spread in the details. As a result,
we will still have chance PoPs for much of the time from Thursday
into the weekend. That being said, late Thursday and Saturday
currently look to have the best chance for widespread activity
with decent consensus on synoptic scale forcing during those
periods. Temperatures look to be a bit above normal through most
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

VFR conditions for most locations overnight as a cold front pushes
through the region. This cold front could produce some MVFR
ceilings, and spark a few thunderstorms. As of now, the majority
of the thunder activity will be at KMSP.

KMSP...
Thunderstorms will continue through at least the next couple of
hours at KMSP. A few could produce some hail. Eventually a cold
front will move through the region and push these storms east.
Expect northwest winds and VFR conditions once the storm passes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kt.
WED...VFR. Wind SE at 10 kt.
THU...VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SE at 10G20 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
110045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is still a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today and
tonight, but the potential is trending downward. The primary
threats are damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Saturday.
Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed if storms develop later
this evening.

jrb

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNC019-053-171-100645-
Wright-Hennepin-Carver-
1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
western Twin Cities metro area in the following counties...

Wright...Hennepin...Carver...

* Until 145 AM CDT.

* At 1241 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  heavy rain due to thunderstorms with up to 2 inches of rain
  already fallen, and an additional 1 inch of rain possible. This
  will cause urban and small stream flooding in the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Buffalo, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Maple Grove, Minnetonka, Edina,
  St. Louis Park, Brooklyn Center, Fridley, Champlin, Golden Valley
  and Hopkins.

LAT...LON 4513 9330 4511 9328 4510 9328 4490 9339
      4489 9377 4495 9396 4522 9394 4527 9367

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1248 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             3 SW CHANHASSEN         44.83N 93.56W
08/09/2020  M1.25 INCH       CARVER             MN   PUBLIC

1221 AM     HAIL             4 SE BUFFALO            45.14N 93.80W
08/10/2020  E1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1250 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 45.18N 93.88W
08/09/2020  M2.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1253 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     HAIL             LORETTO                 45.06N 93.64W
08/10/2020  M2.50 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

&&

LS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
129 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNC019-053-100730-
Hennepin-Carver-
129 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Hennepin...Carver...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 127 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
  the area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen and another
  inch or two is possible.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Plymouth, Eden Prairie,
  Burnsville, Minnetonka, Edina, St. Louis Park, Shakopee, Richfield
  and Savage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4481 9343 4480 9352 4483 9377 4486 9391
      4495 9393 4498 9383 4498 9377 4500 9376
      4497 9321 4488 9318 4481 9325 4478 9336

JRB