Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Twin Cities, MN

925 
WWUS53 KMPX 100341
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNC139-100350-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-200810T0415Z/
Scott MN-
1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4477 9333 4479 9333 4478 9336 4479 9338
      4486 9335 4485 9310 4481 9310 4481 9311
      4472 9312 4472 9313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 275DEG 17KT 4481 9328 

$$

MNC037-053-100415-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-200810T0415Z/
Hennepin MN-Dakota MN-
1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN AND NORTHWESTERN DAKOTA COUNTIES...

At 1040 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bloomington,
or 10 miles south of Minneapolis, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Apple Valley around 1050 PM CDT.
  Rosemount around 1100 PM CDT.
  Eagan around 1105 PM CDT.
  Inver Grove Heights around 1110 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include South St
Paul Airport, Mall Of America and Fort Snelling State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4477 9333 4479 9333 4478 9336 4479 9338
      4486 9335 4485 9310 4481 9310 4481 9311
      4472 9312 4472 9313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 275DEG 17KT 4481 9328 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

967 
WWUS53 KMPX 100354
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1054 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNC037-053-100403-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-200810T0415Z/
Hennepin MN-Dakota MN-
1054 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN AND
NORTHWESTERN DAKOTA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4477 9333 4479 9333 4478 9336 4479 9338
      4486 9335 4485 9310 4481 9310 4481 9311
      4472 9312 4472 9313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 284DEG 12KT 4480 9322 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Visible imagery shows clearing skies across the western and
southern portion of the area in the wake of the convectively
enhanced shortwave trough moving into northwest Wisconsin.
Convection continues to develop with that feature, but will be out
of the area before the start of the forecast period. However, the
cold frontal boundary remains to our northwest, and the mid/upper
shortwave trough helping to push that through the region won't
arrive until tonight. Widespread convection is ongoing in
association with these features, but it may have difficulty
persisting too far into our area tonight. The guidance is mixed on
how well convection will survive/develop as the system moves
through tonight. We still have plenty of elevated CAPE in place
(MUCAPE values AOA 2500 J/Kg across much of the area), but things
are capped with respect to activity that would be rooted in the
boundary layer and MLCAPE across the northwest forecast area is
AOB 1000 J/Kg. This may recover a bit, and should the activity to
the northwest grow upscale sufficiently it may not matter.
However, we're seeing some height rises in the wake of the MCV,
and we also have some low-level ridging and lack of convergence
progged ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through the
area. Kept chance PoPs given the uncertainty, but wouldn't be
surprised if most of the activity stays to our north.

Any lingering precipitation should quickly exit the area Monday
morning, with high pressure building in from the west through the
day. Ridging will remain in place through Monday night, with
seasonably dry weather across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

The upper trough over the region will shift northeast by the
middle of the week, and large scale pattern looks to evolve toward
western troughing/eastern ridging by the end of the week.
Return flow looks to setup across the region for the latter part
of the week, increasing precipitation chances for us from Thursday
into the weekend. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
good agreement on this overall large scale pattern, but there is
understandably still plenty of spread in the details. As a result,
we will still have chance PoPs for much of the time from Thursday
into the weekend. That being said, late Thursday and Saturday
currently look to have the best chance for widespread activity
with decent consensus on synoptic scale forcing during those
periods. Temperatures look to be a bit above normal through most
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Generally VFR conditions throughout. A cold front will move
through the region overnight and this could be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms. However, this has been trending
downward recently, so for that reason removed mention of thunder
from the TAFs. The risk is non-zero, but too low to include in the
TAFs. On Monday expect northwest winds.

KMSP...
VFR conditions. Southwest winds will become northwest as a cold
front passes through. This could produce a few thunderstorms, but
overall the risk is too low to mention in the TAFs as this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kt.
WED...VFR. Wind SE at 10 kt.
THU...VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SE at 10G20 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
110045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is still a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today and
tonight, but the potential is trending downward. The primary
threats are damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Saturday.
Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed if storms develop later
this evening.

jrb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
931 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             1 SSW VICTORIA          44.86N 93.66W
08/09/2020  M1.25 INCH       CARVER             MN   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
940 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     HAIL             2 WSW CHANHASSEN        44.85N 93.56W
08/09/2020  M1.25 INCH       CARVER             MN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            CONTINUOUS HAIL, THE LARGEST 1.25 INCHES.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
946 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             1 SSE VICTORIA          44.85N 93.65W
08/09/2020  M1.75 INCH       CARVER             MN   PUBLIC

            THERE HAS BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE
            HAIL, UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE FROM VICTORIA,
            EASTWARD TO CHANHASSEN.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
958 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     HAIL             2 WSW CHANHASSEN        44.85N 93.56W
08/09/2020  M2.00 INCH       CARVER             MN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            2 INCH HAIL AT THE NWS OFFICE.

&&

JLT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1014 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNZ060-062-069-070-100400-
Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-
1014 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN...
NORTHWESTERN DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHWESTERN RAMSEY
COUNTIES...

At 1013 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Eden Prairie,
or 13 miles southwest of Minneapolis, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm. Localized flooding is also possible, especially in flood
prone areas.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Eagan, Eden Prairie, Burnsville,
Lakeville, Minnetonka, Apple Valley, Edina, St. Louis Park and
Shakopee.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4473 9357 4498 9344 4498 9311 4466 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 283DEG 20KT 4480 9341

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1019 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             1 WNW EDEN PRAIRIE      44.85N 93.47W
08/09/2020  E1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CEO