Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Twin Cities, MN

220 
WWUS53 KMPX 100905
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
405 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNC131-100930-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-200810T0930Z/
Rice MN-
405 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RICE COUNTY...

At 404 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Nerstrand, or 8
miles east of Faribault, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Faribault, Nerstrand, Ruskin and Faribault Airport. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4438 9334 4442 9304 4422 9305 4426 9335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 269DEG 32KT 4431 9312 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CEO

519 
WWUS53 KMPX 100913
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNC131-100930-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-200810T0930Z/
Rice MN-
413 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RICE COUNTY...

At 413 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kenyon, or 9
miles east of Faribault, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Faribault, Nerstrand and Ruskin. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4430 9323 4437 9304 4422 9305 4426 9335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 283DEG 35KT 4427 9309 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRB

567 
WWUS53 KMPX 100913 RRA
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNC131-100930-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-200810T0930Z/
Rice MN-
413 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RICE COUNTY...

At 413 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kenyon, or 9
miles east of Faribault, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Faribault, Nerstrand and Ruskin. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4430 9323 4437 9304 4422 9305 4426 9335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 283DEG 35KT 4427 9308 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Visible imagery shows clearing skies across the western and
southern portion of the area in the wake of the convectively
enhanced shortwave trough moving into northwest Wisconsin.
Convection continues to develop with that feature, but will be out
of the area before the start of the forecast period. However, the
cold frontal boundary remains to our northwest, and the mid/upper
shortwave trough helping to push that through the region won't
arrive until tonight. Widespread convection is ongoing in
association with these features, but it may have difficulty
persisting too far into our area tonight. The guidance is mixed on
how well convection will survive/develop as the system moves
through tonight. We still have plenty of elevated CAPE in place
(MUCAPE values AOA 2500 J/Kg across much of the area), but things
are capped with respect to activity that would be rooted in the
boundary layer and MLCAPE across the northwest forecast area is
AOB 1000 J/Kg. This may recover a bit, and should the activity to
the northwest grow upscale sufficiently it may not matter.
However, we're seeing some height rises in the wake of the MCV,
and we also have some low-level ridging and lack of convergence
progged ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through the
area. Kept chance PoPs given the uncertainty, but wouldn't be
surprised if most of the activity stays to our north.

Any lingering precipitation should quickly exit the area Monday
morning, with high pressure building in from the west through the
day. Ridging will remain in place through Monday night, with
seasonably dry weather across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

The upper trough over the region will shift northeast by the
middle of the week, and large scale pattern looks to evolve toward
western troughing/eastern ridging by the end of the week.
Return flow looks to setup across the region for the latter part
of the week, increasing precipitation chances for us from Thursday
into the weekend. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
good agreement on this overall large scale pattern, but there is
understandably still plenty of spread in the details. As a result,
we will still have chance PoPs for much of the time from Thursday
into the weekend. That being said, late Thursday and Saturday
currently look to have the best chance for widespread activity
with decent consensus on synoptic scale forcing during those
periods. Temperatures look to be a bit above normal through most
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

VFR conditions for most locations overnight as a cold front pushes
through the region. This cold front could produce some MVFR
ceilings, and spark a few thunderstorms. As of now, the majority
of the thunder activity will be at KMSP.

KMSP...
Thunderstorms will continue through at least the next couple of
hours at KMSP. A few could produce some hail. Eventually a cold
front will move through the region and push these storms east.
Expect northwest winds and VFR conditions once the storm passes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kt.
WED...VFR. Wind SE at 10 kt.
THU...VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SE at 10G20 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
110045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is still a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today and
tonight, but the potential is trending downward. The primary
threats are damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Saturday.
Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed if storms develop later
this evening.

jrb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
250 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HAIL             2 NNE BUFFALO           45.20N 93.87W
08/10/2020  M1.25 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HAIL             1 NNE BUFFALO           45.19N 93.87W
08/10/2020  M2.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 AM     HAIL             1 WSW HANOVER           45.15N 93.69W
08/10/2020  M1.50 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

WIZ024-100915-
Pierce-
326 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PIERCE COUNTY...

At 326 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Prescott, or 10 miles northwest of Red Wing, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ellsworth, El Paso, Diamond Bluff, Beldenville and Esdaile.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4462 9262 4464 9262 4473 9275 4484 9227
      4457 9224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 262DEG 25KT 4467 9268

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
334 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNZ051-100930-
Sherburne-
334 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SHERBURNE COUNTY...

At 334 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Clear Lake, or
12 miles southeast of St. Cloud, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Becker around 350 AM CDT.
  Big Lake around 405 AM CDT.
  Elk River and Zimmerman around 415 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Sherburne National
Wildlife Refuge, Orrock, Santiago and St Cloud Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 183 and 197.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 164 and 176.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4537 9351 4538 9396 4540 9399 4539 9401
      4543 9405 4545 9409 4556 9408 4555 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 274DEG 23KT 4547 9399

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
336 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 AM     HAIL             2 S OGILVIE             45.80N 93.42W
08/10/2020  M1.00 INCH       KANABEC            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&