Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Twin Cities, MN

122 
WWUS53 KMPX 100838 RRA
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNC095-100848-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-200810T0900Z/
Mille Lacs MN-
338 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MILLE LACS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4598 9306 4598 9314 4579 9315 4577 9348
      4589 9349 4604 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0838Z 268DEG 23KT 4586 9328 

$$

MNC065-100900-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-200810T0900Z/
Kanabec MN-
338 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN KANABEC COUNTY...

At 338 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mora, or 15
miles west of Pine City, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mora, Brunswick, Ogilvie, Grasston, Quamba and Mora Airport. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4598 9306 4598 9314 4579 9315 4577 9348
      4589 9349 4604 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0838Z 268DEG 23KT 4586 9328 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CEO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Visible imagery shows clearing skies across the western and
southern portion of the area in the wake of the convectively
enhanced shortwave trough moving into northwest Wisconsin.
Convection continues to develop with that feature, but will be out
of the area before the start of the forecast period. However, the
cold frontal boundary remains to our northwest, and the mid/upper
shortwave trough helping to push that through the region won't
arrive until tonight. Widespread convection is ongoing in
association with these features, but it may have difficulty
persisting too far into our area tonight. The guidance is mixed on
how well convection will survive/develop as the system moves
through tonight. We still have plenty of elevated CAPE in place
(MUCAPE values AOA 2500 J/Kg across much of the area), but things
are capped with respect to activity that would be rooted in the
boundary layer and MLCAPE across the northwest forecast area is
AOB 1000 J/Kg. This may recover a bit, and should the activity to
the northwest grow upscale sufficiently it may not matter.
However, we're seeing some height rises in the wake of the MCV,
and we also have some low-level ridging and lack of convergence
progged ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through the
area. Kept chance PoPs given the uncertainty, but wouldn't be
surprised if most of the activity stays to our north.

Any lingering precipitation should quickly exit the area Monday
morning, with high pressure building in from the west through the
day. Ridging will remain in place through Monday night, with
seasonably dry weather across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

The upper trough over the region will shift northeast by the
middle of the week, and large scale pattern looks to evolve toward
western troughing/eastern ridging by the end of the week.
Return flow looks to setup across the region for the latter part
of the week, increasing precipitation chances for us from Thursday
into the weekend. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
good agreement on this overall large scale pattern, but there is
understandably still plenty of spread in the details. As a result,
we will still have chance PoPs for much of the time from Thursday
into the weekend. That being said, late Thursday and Saturday
currently look to have the best chance for widespread activity
with decent consensus on synoptic scale forcing during those
periods. Temperatures look to be a bit above normal through most
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

VFR conditions for most locations overnight as a cold front pushes
through the region. This cold front could produce some MVFR
ceilings, and spark a few thunderstorms. As of now, the majority
of the thunder activity will be at KMSP.

KMSP...
Thunderstorms will continue through at least the next couple of
hours at KMSP. A few could produce some hail. Eventually a cold
front will move through the region and push these storms east.
Expect northwest winds and VFR conditions once the storm passes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kt.
WED...VFR. Wind SE at 10 kt.
THU...VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SE at 10G20 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
110045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is still a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today and
tonight, but the potential is trending downward. The primary
threats are damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Saturday.
Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed if storms develop later
this evening.

jrb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
214 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW RICHFIELD         44.86N 93.32W
08/10/2020  M56 MPH          HENNEPIN           MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DW1498 EDINA.

&&

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
220 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     HAIL             3 S EAGAN               44.80N 93.14W
08/10/2020  M1.00 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
222 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 AM     HAIL             PRIOR LAKE              44.71N 93.43W
08/10/2020  M1.00 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
250 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HAIL             2 NNE BUFFALO           45.20N 93.87W
08/10/2020  M1.25 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HAIL             1 NNE BUFFALO           45.19N 93.87W
08/10/2020  M2.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 AM     HAIL             1 WSW HANOVER           45.15N 93.69W
08/10/2020  M1.50 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&