Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Visible imagery shows clearing skies across the western and
southern portion of the area in the wake of the convectively
enhanced shortwave trough moving into northwest Wisconsin.
Convection continues to develop with that feature, but will be out
of the area before the start of the forecast period. However, the
cold frontal boundary remains to our northwest, and the mid/upper
shortwave trough helping to push that through the region won't
arrive until tonight. Widespread convection is ongoing in
association with these features, but it may have difficulty
persisting too far into our area tonight. The guidance is mixed on
how well convection will survive/develop as the system moves
through tonight. We still have plenty of elevated CAPE in place
(MUCAPE values AOA 2500 J/Kg across much of the area), but things
are capped with respect to activity that would be rooted in the
boundary layer and MLCAPE across the northwest forecast area is
AOB 1000 J/Kg. This may recover a bit, and should the activity to
the northwest grow upscale sufficiently it may not matter.
However, we're seeing some height rises in the wake of the MCV,
and we also have some low-level ridging and lack of convergence
progged ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through the
area. Kept chance PoPs given the uncertainty, but wouldn't be
surprised if most of the activity stays to our north.

Any lingering precipitation should quickly exit the area Monday
morning, with high pressure building in from the west through the
day. Ridging will remain in place through Monday night, with
seasonably dry weather across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

The upper trough over the region will shift northeast by the
middle of the week, and large scale pattern looks to evolve toward
western troughing/eastern ridging by the end of the week.
Return flow looks to setup across the region for the latter part
of the week, increasing precipitation chances for us from Thursday
into the weekend. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
good agreement on this overall large scale pattern, but there is
understandably still plenty of spread in the details. As a result,
we will still have chance PoPs for much of the time from Thursday
into the weekend. That being said, late Thursday and Saturday
currently look to have the best chance for widespread activity
with decent consensus on synoptic scale forcing during those
periods. Temperatures look to be a bit above normal through most
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Generally VFR conditions throughout. A cold front will move
through the region overnight and this could be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms. However, this has been trending
downward recently, so for that reason removed mention of thunder
from the TAFs. The risk is non-zero, but too low to include in the
TAFs. On Monday expect northwest winds.

KMSP...
VFR conditions. Southwest winds will become northwest as a cold
front passes through. This could produce a few thunderstorms, but
overall the risk is too low to mention in the TAFs as this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kt.
WED...VFR. Wind SE at 10 kt.
THU...VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SE at 10G20 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
110045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is still a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today and
tonight, but the potential is trending downward. The primary
threats are damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Saturday.
Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed if storms develop later
this evening.

jrb

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     HAIL             1 ENE MAPLE PLAIN       45.01N 93.65W
08/10/2020  M1.75 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 AM     HAIL             1 ENE LORETTO           45.06N 93.61W
08/10/2020  M2.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNC019-053-171-100645-
Wright-Hennepin-Carver-
1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
western Twin Cities metro area in the following counties...

Wright...Hennepin...Carver...

* Until 145 AM CDT.

* At 1241 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  heavy rain due to thunderstorms with up to 2 inches of rain
  already fallen, and an additional 1 inch of rain possible. This
  will cause urban and small stream flooding in the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Buffalo, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Maple Grove, Minnetonka, Edina,
  St. Louis Park, Brooklyn Center, Fridley, Champlin, Golden Valley
  and Hopkins.

LAT...LON 4513 9330 4511 9328 4510 9328 4490 9339
      4489 9377 4495 9396 4522 9394 4527 9367

JRB