Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Two convective clusters - one over northern Minnesota (heading
east northeast) and the other over northeast Kansas (heading
southeast) are diverging, leaving a large void over most of the
CWA. An outflow boundary associated with the MN cluster is pushing
east across eastern MN and a few showers have developed behind
it. Not expecting these to build into much and little activity is
anticipated through the morning as the overnight convection has
contaminated the prefrontal atmosphere across the CWA. As the
surface cold front heads southeast this afternoon, it will
encounter a recovering airmass over southern MN and WI. Warm and
unstable air should allow thunderstorm development to take place
before quickly shifting to the southeast this evening. The severe
threat is low and should be sporadic like it has been during the
last couple days. A couple storms could produce large hail and
damaging winds.

A Canadian airmass with the coolest temperatures since late June
will arrive tonight. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are
expected. Will need to watch out for fog formation with crossover
temperatures being met and winds decoupling. The column will be
rather dry, however, so not forecasting anything widespread.

A seasonably warm day with comfortable humidity and plenty of
sunshine is on tap for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Two pattern shifts should take place into late July. An intense
ridge will retreat to the southwest and build to over 600 dm,
allowing a trough to develop across the north central and eastern
parts of the United States. This will result in northwest flow
for the Upper Midwest and a fairly active pattern. Numerous
systems coming onshore the Canadian Pacific coast will send
smaller disturbances across the Northern Plains to Great Lakes,
offering periodic thunderstorm chances. Some severe weather will
be possible with these, but such fine scale features responsible
for that possibility are not well forecast beyond about 12 hours.
Therefore, precip probabilities are broad and reside in the mid
range until confidence increases either way. This pattern will
keep temperatures near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

The pattern will shift again by the middle of next week as the
ridge spreads eastward across the southern half of the country. By
late next week, model guidance has been fairly consistent in
showing a massive ridge of nearly 600 dm encompassing the
southern two thirds of the U.S. An intense heat wave would be
expected with the possibility of widespread 100s under the ridge
into late July. Ensemble spread is quite large for us being on the
edge and ranges from the intense heat scenario to a cooler and
stormier pattern in the ring of fire. Either way, it will be
interesting to watch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

A band of showers and thunderstorms stretching from north central
WI to northwest Iowa is nearly stationary. These are likely to
continue through the morning, then build into stronger
thunderstorms this afternoon as a disturbance over eastern
Nebraska advances east northeast. MKT, RNH, and EAU are most
likely to be affected today, but showers could also approach MSP
and RWF at times.

KMSP...Best chance of showers and storms will be south, but it is
likely some will occasionally pass overhead through mid afternoon
before drier air moves in.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kt.
SAT...VFR with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 10 kt.
SUN...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms across southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin today. Large hail, damaging
winds, and heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the middle of next
week. Some severe weather is possible at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

WIZ014-015-023-025-091200-
Polk-Barron-St. Croix-Dunn-
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DUNN...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CROIX...SOUTHWESTERN BARRON AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK
COUNTIES...

At 619 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 7 miles west of
Glenwood City, or 21 miles northeast of River Falls, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood City, Boyceville, Clear Lake, Clayton, Prairie Farm, Forest,
Emerald, Cylon, Downing, Reeve and Connorsville.

LAT...LON 4497 9235 4506 9244 4540 9218 4510 9183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1119Z 227DEG 31KT 4509 9231

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
710 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

WIZ025>028-091245-
Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-
710 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL PEPIN...SOUTHERN
DUNN...SOUTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND NORTHWESTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES...

At 710 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Eau Galle, or 9
miles south of Menomonie, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eau Claire, Menomonie, Elk Mound, Eau Galle, Rock Falls, Caryville
and Downsville.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 48 and
66.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4462 9213 4477 9211 4506 9150 4472 9150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1210Z 246DEG 33KT 4476 9193

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
717 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE TILDEN            45.03N 91.42W
07/09/2020                   CHIPPEWA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCH DIAMETER BRANCH DOWN AND MOST OF A
            TREE DOWN BLOCKING A ROAD.

&&

CEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
720 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

WIZ028-091245-
Eau Claire-
720 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTY...

At 720 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Augusta, or 21
miles northwest of Neillsville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Augusta and Fairchild.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4460 9102 4459 9105 4470 9115 4486 9093
      4460 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 1220Z 220DEG 20KT 4470 9099

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
737 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE MENOMONIE         44.91N 91.91W
07/09/2020                   DUNN               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 2
            NNE TILDEN. 8 INCH DIAMETER BRANCH DOWN AND
            MOST OF A TREE DOWN BLOCKING A ROAD.

&&

CEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
744 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ085-091300-
Steele-
744 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTY...

At 744 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Owatonna,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Merton and Moland.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4415 9319 4420 9313 4419 9305 4407 9305
      4406 9307 4406 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 232DEG 18KT 4413 9310