Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Two convective clusters - one over northern Minnesota (heading
east northeast) and the other over northeast Kansas (heading
southeast) are diverging, leaving a large void over most of the
CWA. An outflow boundary associated with the MN cluster is pushing
east across eastern MN and a few showers have developed behind
it. Not expecting these to build into much and little activity is
anticipated through the morning as the overnight convection has
contaminated the prefrontal atmosphere across the CWA. As the
surface cold front heads southeast this afternoon, it will
encounter a recovering airmass over southern MN and WI. Warm and
unstable air should allow thunderstorm development to take place
before quickly shifting to the southeast this evening. The severe
threat is low and should be sporadic like it has been during the
last couple days. A couple storms could produce large hail and
damaging winds.

A Canadian airmass with the coolest temperatures since late June
will arrive tonight. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are
expected. Will need to watch out for fog formation with crossover
temperatures being met and winds decoupling. The column will be
rather dry, however, so not forecasting anything widespread.

A seasonably warm day with comfortable humidity and plenty of
sunshine is on tap for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Two pattern shifts should take place into late July. An intense
ridge will retreat to the southwest and build to over 600 dm,
allowing a trough to develop across the north central and eastern
parts of the United States. This will result in northwest flow
for the Upper Midwest and a fairly active pattern. Numerous
systems coming onshore the Canadian Pacific coast will send
smaller disturbances across the Northern Plains to Great Lakes,
offering periodic thunderstorm chances. Some severe weather will
be possible with these, but such fine scale features responsible
for that possibility are not well forecast beyond about 12 hours.
Therefore, precip probabilities are broad and reside in the mid
range until confidence increases either way. This pattern will
keep temperatures near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

The pattern will shift again by the middle of next week as the
ridge spreads eastward across the southern half of the country. By
late next week, model guidance has been fairly consistent in
showing a massive ridge of nearly 600 dm encompassing the
southern two thirds of the U.S. An intense heat wave would be
expected with the possibility of widespread 100s under the ridge
into late July. Ensemble spread is quite large for us being on the
edge and ranges from the intense heat scenario to a cooler and
stormier pattern in the ring of fire. Either way, it will be
interesting to watch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Generally VFR conditions throughout. There is a chance for showers
and thunderstorms. These storms should weaken as they move
eastward overnight, but could see some redevelopment on Thursday,
especially east of I-35.

KMSP...
Generally VFR conditions throughout, but could have some
thunderstorms on Thursday. As of now the best chance is around
mid-day. Winds should become northwesterly.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kt.
SAT...VFR with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 10 kt.
SUN...VFR. Wind VRB at 05 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms across southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin today. Large hail, damaging
winds, and heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the middle of next
week. Some severe weather is possible at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ043-044-049-050-090830-
Benton-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Stearns-
244 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MILLE LACS...
NORTHWESTERN BENTON...NORTHEASTERN STEARNS AND SOUTHERN MORRISON
COUNTIES...

At 244 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Royalton, or
10 miles southeast of Little Falls, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Falls, Pierz, Royalton, Onamia, Holdingford, Bowlus,
Flensburg, Lastrup, Vineland, Rice, Granite Ledge and Morrill.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 143 and 166.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 199 and 214.

LAT...LON 4598 9351 4590 9352 4566 9436 4572 9450
      4592 9453 4616 9407 4616 9381 4618 9380
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 236DEG 49KT 4586 9423

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE GLENWOOD          45.63N 95.32W
07/09/2020  M53 MPH          POPE               MN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KGHW GLENWOOD AP.

0230 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW ALEXANDRIA         45.87N 95.40W
07/09/2020  M59 MPH          DOUGLAS            MN   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KAXN ALEXANDRIA MN ASOS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
355 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ067>069-090930-
Carver-Sibley-Scott-
355 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIBLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARVER COUNTIES...

At 354 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Henderson, or
27 miles north of Mankato, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belle Plaine, Jordan, Henderson and Mn Valley State Rec Area.

LAT...LON 4451 9402 4457 9404 4479 9373 4463 9355
      4454 9383 4455 9391 4452 9389 4450 9396
TIME...MOT...LOC 0854Z 238DEG 36KT 4457 9395

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
405 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ052-053-090930-
Isanti-Chisago-
405 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHISAGO
AND CENTRAL ISANTI COUNTIES...

At 405 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Cambridge,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, Isanti, Rush City, Spring Lake, Athens, Stanchfield,
Harris, Grandy, Rush City Airport, Bodum, Cambridge Airport and Wild
River State Park.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 151 and 163.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4572 9285 4572 9287 4561 9289 4541 9325
      4550 9334 4573 9319 4573 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 223DEG 34KT 4556 9318

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     HAIL             ISANTI                  45.49N 93.25W
07/09/2020  M1.00 INCH       ISANTI             MN   PUBLIC

            PICTURE ON TWITTER.

&&

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
439 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ053-WIZ014-091030-
Chisago-Polk-
439 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHISAGO AND NORTHWESTERN
POLK COUNTIES...

At 439 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Center City, or
20 miles east of Cambridge, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Branch, Chisago City, Lindstrom, Rush City, Frederic, Center
City, Harris, Wild River State Park, Rush City Airport, Wolf Creek,
Branch and Lewis.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 143 and 144, and between mile
markers 148 and 163.
 U.S. Highway 8 in Minnesota between mile markers 9 and 11.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4536 9289 4544 9299 4573 9301 4573 9285
      4572 9287 4564 9288 4565 9253 4573 9252
      4573 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 222DEG 32KT 4544 9284

TDH