Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Two convective clusters - one over northern Minnesota (heading
east northeast) and the other over northeast Kansas (heading
southeast) are diverging, leaving a large void over most of the
CWA. An outflow boundary associated with the MN cluster is pushing
east across eastern MN and a few showers have developed behind
it. Not expecting these to build into much and little activity is
anticipated through the morning as the overnight convection has
contaminated the prefrontal atmosphere across the CWA. As the
surface cold front heads southeast this afternoon, it will
encounter a recovering airmass over southern MN and WI. Warm and
unstable air should allow thunderstorm development to take place
before quickly shifting to the southeast this evening. The severe
threat is low and should be sporadic like it has been during the
last couple days. A couple storms could produce large hail and
damaging winds.

A Canadian airmass with the coolest temperatures since late June
will arrive tonight. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are
expected. Will need to watch out for fog formation with crossover
temperatures being met and winds decoupling. The column will be
rather dry, however, so not forecasting anything widespread.

A seasonably warm day with comfortable humidity and plenty of
sunshine is on tap for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Two pattern shifts should take place into late July. An intense
ridge will retreat to the southwest and build to over 600 dm,
allowing a trough to develop across the north central and eastern
parts of the United States. This will result in northwest flow
for the Upper Midwest and a fairly active pattern. Numerous
systems coming onshore the Canadian Pacific coast will send
smaller disturbances across the Northern Plains to Great Lakes,
offering periodic thunderstorm chances. Some severe weather will
be possible with these, but such fine scale features responsible
for that possibility are not well forecast beyond about 12 hours.
Therefore, precip probabilities are broad and reside in the mid
range until confidence increases either way. This pattern will
keep temperatures near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

The pattern will shift again by the middle of next week as the
ridge spreads eastward across the southern half of the country. By
late next week, model guidance has been fairly consistent in
showing a massive ridge of nearly 600 dm encompassing the
southern two thirds of the U.S. An intense heat wave would be
expected with the possibility of widespread 100s under the ridge
into late July. Ensemble spread is quite large for us being on the
edge and ranges from the intense heat scenario to a cooler and
stormier pattern in the ring of fire. Either way, it will be
interesting to watch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Generally VFR conditions throughout. There is a chance for showers
and thunderstorms. These storms should weaken as they move
eastward overnight, but could see some redevelopment on Thursday,
especially east of I-35.

KMSP...
Generally VFR conditions throughout, but could have some
thunderstorms on Thursday. As of now the best chance is around
mid-day. Winds should become northwesterly.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kt.
SAT...VFR with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 10 kt.
SUN...VFR. Wind VRB at 05 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms across southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin today. Large hail, damaging
winds, and heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the middle of next
week. Some severe weather is possible at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Borghoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
545 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 AM     HAIL             HASTINGS                44.74N 92.85W
07/09/2020  M1.25 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   PUBLIC

            PICTURE ON TWITTER.

&&

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
546 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     HAIL             2 W HASTINGS            44.74N 92.88W
07/09/2020  M1.00 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
548 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

WIZ015-016-027-028-091130-
Chippewa-Barron-Eau Claire-Rusk-
548 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RUSK...
CHIPPEWA...EAU CLAIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN BARRON COUNTIES...

At 548 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Fall Creek,
or 15 miles east of Eau Claire, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eau Claire, Chippewa Falls, Altoona, Lake Hallie, Stanley, Bloomer,
Lake Wissota, Augusta, Cornell, Cadott, Fall Creek and Boyd.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 62 and 86.
 U.S. Highway 53 between mile markers 86 and 120.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4460 9156 4539 9159 4532 9092 4460 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 234DEG 22KT 4479 9115

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 AM     HAIL             TILDEN                  45.01N 91.44W
07/09/2020  M1.50 INCH       CHIPPEWA           WI   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     HAIL             4 S NEW RICHMOND        45.07N 92.54W
07/09/2020  M0.70 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   PUBLIC

            PICTURE VIA TWITTER.

&&

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

WIZ014-015-023-025-091200-
Polk-Barron-St. Croix-Dunn-
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DUNN...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CROIX...SOUTHWESTERN BARRON AND SOUTHEASTERN POLK
COUNTIES...

At 619 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 7 miles west of
Glenwood City, or 21 miles northeast of River Falls, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood City, Boyceville, Clear Lake, Clayton, Prairie Farm, Forest,
Emerald, Cylon, Downing, Reeve and Connorsville.

LAT...LON 4497 9235 4506 9244 4540 9218 4510 9183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1119Z 227DEG 31KT 4509 9231

TDH