Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1136 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Latest visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across
much of the area, exceptions being diurnal cu across the southeast
portion of the area and some mid/high clouds and accas (with
perhaps some sprinkles reaching the surface) out west. The frontal
boundary extending from eastern South Dakota into northern
Minnesota will grudgingly move east through the period, getting a
better push on Thursday as the shortwave trough currently over
Saskatchewan and Montana moves by to our north. Ample instability
for convection will be in place into Thursday, but the best focus
for SHRA/TSRA looks to be to our north and west through at least
this evening, with better chances south and east across the
remainder of our area on Thursday. Shear looks to be best to our
northwest, but there should be sufficient shear for multi-cell
clusters and perhaps some bowing segments later tonight with
whatever activity is able to develop. High freezing levels should
preclude large hail in the absence of any supercell structures,
but winds would certainly be a concern with storms through early
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Generally progressive large scale flow will occur through the
period, with a bit of a cooldown through the weekend as northwest
flow develops in the wake of Thursday's shortwave and surface
frontal passage. We'll then see ridging work in from the west
early next week as an upper trough moves into western Canada and
the Pacific northwest. Guidance is actually in fairly good
agreement on the large scale pattern, with differences in
deterministic solutions (and spread in ensemble systems) not
becoming too dramatic until midweek when there are differences in
how zonal the upper flow will become over the northern CONUS.
Didn't make any significant changes to the consensus NBM guidance,
but could certainly see the need to increase temperatures some
next week depending on the position and amplitude of the upper
ridge as well as how much and how quickly it flattens. We'll see a
chance for SHRA/TSRA late Friday and Saturday as we see some
return flow bring better low-level theta-e values back into the
area. The next chance of widespread precipitation looks to hold
off until Monday afternoon and Monday night when a wave looks to
move along the frontal boundary as it slowly slides east through
the region. It is at that point when guidance starts to diverge,
so there is quite a bit of spread in the position of the front and
how quickly it moves through the area (or if it moves through). As
a result, some chance PoPs cover much of the forecast from Monday
night onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Generally VFR conditions throughout. There is a chance for showers
and thunderstorms. These storms should weaken as they move
eastward overnight, but could see some redevelopment on Thursday,
especially east of I-35.

KMSP...
Generally VFR conditions throughout, but could have some
thunderstorms on Thursday. As of now the best chance is around
mid-day. Winds should become northwesterly.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kt.
SAT...VFR with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 10 kt.
SUN...VFR. Wind VRB at 05 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms across southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin today. Large hail, damaging
winds, and heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the middle of next
week. Some severe weather is possible at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ047-048-055-056-090645-
Chippewa-Stevens-Pope-Swift-
1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN POPE...NORTHWESTERN
CHIPPEWA...SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS AND SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 1256 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of
Milan, or 20 miles north of Montevideo, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Benson, Appleton, Hancock, Milan, Cyrus, Lake Hassel, Lake Oliver,
Artichoke Lake, Clontarf, Hagen, De Graff and Danvers.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 17 and 54.
 U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 136 and 160.

LAT...LON 4537 9612 4566 9571 4536 9525 4529 9525
      4504 9589 4510 9598 4516 9605 4516 9609
      4518 9611 4524 9610 4524 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 229DEG 41KT 4523 9586

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
156 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ042-043-048>050-090745-
Benton-Morrison-Stearns-Pope-Todd-
156 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...A LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN POPE...NORTHWESTERN
BENTON...SOUTHERN TODD...NORTHWESTERN STEARNS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MORRISON COUNTIES...

At 156 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles south of Lake Osakis to Freeport.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Little Falls, Sauk Centre, Melrose, Long Prairie, Albany, Avon,
Royalton, Browerville, Holdingford, Freeport, Upsala and Swanville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 116 and 153.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 147 and 165.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 155 and 193.

LAT...LON 4583 9397 4544 9478 4571 9528 4576 9522
      4576 9514 4584 9514 4613 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 236DEG 47KT 4576 9518 4565 9472

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ043-044-049-050-090830-
Benton-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Stearns-
244 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MILLE LACS...
NORTHWESTERN BENTON...NORTHEASTERN STEARNS AND SOUTHERN MORRISON
COUNTIES...

At 244 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Royalton, or
10 miles southeast of Little Falls, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Falls, Pierz, Royalton, Onamia, Holdingford, Bowlus,
Flensburg, Lastrup, Vineland, Rice, Granite Ledge and Morrill.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 143 and 166.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 199 and 214.

LAT...LON 4598 9351 4590 9352 4566 9436 4572 9450
      4592 9453 4616 9407 4616 9381 4618 9380
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 236DEG 49KT 4586 9423

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE GLENWOOD          45.63N 95.32W
07/09/2020  M53 MPH          POPE               MN   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KGHW GLENWOOD AP.

0230 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW ALEXANDRIA         45.87N 95.40W
07/09/2020  M59 MPH          DOUGLAS            MN   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KAXN ALEXANDRIA MN ASOS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
355 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ067>069-090930-
Carver-Sibley-Scott-
355 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIBLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARVER COUNTIES...

At 354 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Henderson, or
27 miles north of Mankato, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belle Plaine, Jordan, Henderson and Mn Valley State Rec Area.

LAT...LON 4451 9402 4457 9404 4479 9373 4463 9355
      4454 9383 4455 9391 4452 9389 4450 9396
TIME...MOT...LOC 0854Z 238DEG 36KT 4457 9395

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
405 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MNZ052-053-090930-
Isanti-Chisago-
405 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHISAGO
AND CENTRAL ISANTI COUNTIES...

At 405 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Cambridge,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, Isanti, Rush City, Spring Lake, Athens, Stanchfield,
Harris, Grandy, Rush City Airport, Bodum, Cambridge Airport and Wild
River State Park.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 151 and 163.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4572 9285 4572 9287 4561 9289 4541 9325
      4550 9334 4573 9319 4573 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 223DEG 34KT 4556 9318

TDH