Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
243 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Latest visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across
much of the area, exceptions being diurnal cu across the southeast
portion of the area and some mid/high clouds and accas (with
perhaps some sprinkles reaching the surface) out west. The frontal
boundary extending from eastern South Dakota into northern
Minnesota will grudgingly move east through the period, getting a
better push on Thursday as the shortwave trough currently over
Saskatchewan and Montana moves by to our north. Ample instability
for convection will be in place into Thursday, but the best focus
for SHRA/TSRA looks to be to our north and west through at least
this evening, with better chances south and east across the
remainder of our area on Thursday. Shear looks to be best to our
northwest, but there should be sufficient shear for multi-cell
clusters and perhaps some bowing segments later tonight with
whatever activity is able to develop. High freezing levels should
preclude large hail in the absence of any supercell structures,
but winds would certainly be a concern with storms through early
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Generally progressive large scale flow will occur through the
period, with a bit of a cooldown through the weekend as northwest
flow develops in the wake of Thursday's shortwave and surface
frontal passage. We'll then see ridging work in from the west
early next week as an upper trough moves into western Canada and
the Pacific northwest. Guidance is actually in fairly good
agreement on the large scale pattern, with differences in
deterministic solutions (and spread in ensemble systems) not
becoming too dramatic until midweek when there are differences in
how zonal the upper flow will become over the northern CONUS.
Didn't make any significant changes to the consensus NBM guidance,
but could certainly see the need to increase temperatures some
next week depending on the position and amplitude of the upper
ridge as well as how much and how quickly it flattens. We'll see a
chance for SHRA/TSRA late Friday and Saturday as we see some
return flow bring better low-level theta-e values back into the
area. The next chance of widespread precipitaiton looks to hold
off until Monday afternoon and Monday night when a wave looks to
move along the frontal boundary as it slowly slides east through
the region. It is at that point when guidance starts to diverge,
so there is quite a bit of spread in the position of the front and
how quickly it moves through the area (or if it moves through). As
a result, some chance PoPs cover much of the forecast from Monday
night onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

MCS from earlier today has dissipated and skies are quickly
clearing across the area. Winds are recovering from the earlier
convection, and should shift into a southerly direction over the
next few hours. Frontal boundary to our west will slowly push east
across area through Thursday. This will be a focus for convection
late this afternoon and tonight, although much of the activity
looks to miss our area to the north (and west initially). However,
included some PROB groups for most sites later tonight as anything
which develops upstream is able to move into the area.

KMSP...Main forecast concern is the chance for convection later
today and tonight. Continues to appear that any activity would
hold off until late evening or the overnight hours, so included a
PROB group after 06Z to account for that possibility.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thursday night...VFR. Northwest wind less than 10 kt.
Friday...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt becoming west.
Friday night...VFR. West wind 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest.
Saturday...MVFR possible with a chance of SHRA/TSRA. Southwest
wind around 5 kt becoming northeast around 10 kt.
Saturday night...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.
Sunday...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau
     Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Blue Earth-
     Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Isanti-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-
     Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-
     Steele-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-
     Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.

&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091715-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect today for the Twin Cities
metro with a Heat Advisory in effect for much of the rest of
central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Heat
indices of 100 to 103 degrees are expected.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic thunderstorms are expected through early next week.
There is a Slight Risk of severe storms across western Wisconsin
Thursday, with a Marginal Risk across eastern Minnesota. Large
hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and
tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

MNZ042-090000-
Todd-
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TODD COUNTY...

At 634 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bertha, or 30
miles northeast of Alexandria, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Staples, Staples Airport, Bertha, Hewitt and Philbrook.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 103 and 114.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 207 and 219.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4637 9474 4635 9470 4635 9468 4636 9467
      4635 9466 4628 9465 4617 9514 4637 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 241DEG 39KT 4629 9505

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

MNZ042-090045-
Todd-
715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TODD COUNTY...

At 715 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Clarissa, or 18 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Browerville, Clarissa, Eagle Bend and Clotho.

This includes U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 191 and 205.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4613 9471 4591 9509 4599 9516 4608 9514
      4628 9495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 216DEG 26KT 4603 9503

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
733 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

MNZ042-043-090100-
Morrison-Todd-
733 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TODD AND
NORTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

At 733 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Pillager, or 17
miles west of Brainerd, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Motley, Cushing, Philbrook and Crow Wing State Park.

This includes U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 114
and 127.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4633 9462 4631 9455 4631 9451 4633 9443
      4629 9435 4627 9434 4623 9440 4620 9440
      4616 9470 4629 9477 4635 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 233DEG 25KT 4627 9453

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
744 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

MNZ042-090115-
Todd-
744 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TODD COUNTY...

At 743 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Clarissa, or 21
miles northeast of Alexandria, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Browerville, Clarissa, Eagle Bend and Clotho.

This includes U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 193 and 207.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4617 9465 4614 9465 4599 9504 4604 9514
      4612 9514 4634 9489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 226DEG 26KT 4608 9500

BPH